Jacob Rubashkin & Justin Ellis

**Molly Jong-Fast** (0:00)
Hi, I'm Molly Jong-Fast, and this is Fast Politics, where we discuss the top political headlines with some of today's best minds. We're on vacation, but we still have an amazing show for you today. Author Justin Ellis stops by to talk about his new book, The Cruelty of Nice Folk, Why Minneapolis Is the Story of America. But first, we'll talk to Inside Elections, Jacob Rubashkin, about the dem chances of taking back the House and the Senate. Welcome, welcome, Jacob.

**Jacob Rubashkin** (0:36)
It is amazing to be here, as always.

**Molly Jong-Fast** (0:39)
Well, it's awesome to have you. We have the shape of what the Democratic Army looks like going into the case for flipping the House, going into the 2026 midterm elections.

**Jacob Rubashkin** (0:55)
Yeah, I mean, we're a little more than halfway through primary season, which sounds crazy because it feels like it's been about a decade since we started these races back in Texas all the way in March. It has been over three months since the primaries kicked off. And when we look at the battlefield for the House map, we've got nominees in probably about half or a little bit more of the most competitive districts. So the Democratic slate is certainly starting to take shape in the center of the battleground. And of course, we've also got results in safer seats, but new members that are going to play a big role in what a Democratic majority might look like next year.

**Molly Jong-Fast** (1:37)
First, can we do a minute on the New York primaries? Because the road to the House runs through New York, and we saw a surprising move. So can you talk us through what happened in New York?

**Jacob Rubashkin** (1:54)
Yeah. Well, I think this is a really great kind of microcosm of a larger tension that we're seeing within the Democratic Party right now when it comes to these House races. Because you've got two different universes. You've got the universe of safe seats where we saw the DSA, Democratic Socialists of America, the Mamdani-backed candidates really show out last night. You saw two incumbents go down to DSA-backed challengers, Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. Both lost to Mamdani-endorsed candidates. Claire Valdez also won in the open Seventh District.

**Molly Jong-Fast** (2:26)
So Claire Valdez, that is the seat that was occupied by Nina Velasquez.

**Jacob Rubashkin** (2:32)
Yeah, so Nidia Velasquez was the long-time member there, a trailblazer.
This is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. It's what people call the commie corridor, this area where Mamdani has been so successful. And so, on the one hand, you've got Democrats in New York, in these safe blue seats, nominating the more progressive candidates. But if you look at the competitive general election races, it's a pretty different story. So if you go up just a little bit north to the Hudson Valley, New York 17, Kate Connolly, who's a Special Forces veteran, former Biden administration official, very kind of no-nonsense.

**Molly Jong-Fast** (3:12)
And that's the seat that's occupied by Mike Lawler.

**Jacob Rubashkin** (3:16)
Mike Lawler, yes, and he is one of the most vulnerable Republicans right now. And there was a progressive candidate in that race, Effie Philip Staley, who was backed by Jamal Bowman, some other progressive organizations there. She came in third. So in that district, the Democrats nominated somebody who came from a more moderate, less ideological, military focused background.

**Molly Jong-Fast** (3:38)
So swing district, you have a centerist, sort of mini Mikey Sherrill.

**Jacob Rubashkin** (3:46)
Yes, similar vein to Mikey Sherrill. And in fact, there's a whole group of women running in highly competitive house districts who have military backgrounds that are explicitly channeling the energy that Mikey Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger and Alyssa Slotkin and some others brought to their races back in 2018

**Molly Jong-Fast** (4:06)
In a dark blue district, you have candidates who are the more lefty part of the spectrum, but in a swingy district, you have a more of a centrist.

**Jacob Rubashkin** (4:16)
Yes, I think that is currently fair to say. We aren't seeing Democrats in these toss-up, highly competitive districts nominate DSA members, nominate kind of the most progressive options there. Yeah, so far, again, we still have primaries to go, but by and large, in the majority makers, we're seeing a far more conventional playbook in terms of who is winning these primaries.

**Molly Jong-Fast** (4:40)
And so we will go from two DSA members in the House to four, which is double, but still not quite a caucus.

**Jacob Rubashkin** (4:49)
Yeah, I mean, look, I think that it's undeniable that over the past decade, the left wing of the Democratic Party is on the ascendancy within the caucus. And if Democrats take back the majority, unless they do it by kind of a smashing margin, it's very possible that the squad or whatever kind of successor to the squad that we're going to see come 2027 will play a very important role in the coalition management that Hakeem Jeffries is going to have to do as a potential speaker.