Israel Attacks Iran: Global Stocks Slide, Oil Prices Spike, Defense Sector Surges 6/13/25

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David Faber (0:59)

Market insight and analysis. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

Carl Quintanilla (1:05)

Good Friday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with David Faber, Sara Eisen, and Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Cramer has the morning off. Global markets are reacting to Israel's strike on Iranian personnel and nuclear sites. Defense stocks are up. The VIXPAC is above 20, oil highest level in about five months. And the bid for Treasury is not as large as some expected. Yields are higher across the curve. Our roadmap this morning is going to begin with Israel striking those nuclear sites. The president urging Iran to make a deal, quote, before it's too late.

David Faber (1:33)

Markets are reacting to those rising Mideast tensions. Oil is spiking as we said. Gold's near a two-month high. And defense stocks, as you might expect, are rallying.

Sara Eisen (1:42)

Plus, one of the black boxes in the Air India Boeing Dreamliner crash has been recovered. As investigators search the site for any evidence on what could have caused the disaster.

Carl Quintanilla (1:52)

We begin with the global markets under pressure and energy prices spiking, all in reaction to Israel's preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. At one point, we did have crude soaring more than 13 percent in the wake of those attacks. Currently up almost 9 percent on a weekly basis for Brent, in particular, Sara. This is going to be in the top 20 gains on a week for Brent since the mid-1980s.

Sara Eisen (2:16)

And yet, it could have been worse. And some of the themes from the notes this morning from the analysts that cover oil say, actually, we don't expect a prolonged impact here when it comes to oil. Goldman Sachs, while we have a higher geopolitical risk premium, we still assume no disruptions to our oil supply in the Middle East, and our forecast remains that strong supply growth outside of US shale will reduce Brent prices to $59 in 2025 by Q4. Bottom line, there are still so much we do not know. We do not know what comes next. There is a sense that this will be more prolonged. We've heard that from both Prime Minister Netanyahu, also from President Trump and any of the spokespeople out of the IDF, that this is sort of the beginning, but President Trump is leaving the window open. So don't know if those six round of talks are going to be happening on Sunday as planned and just don't know what the escalation and retaliation looks like from here. Obviously, the big concern for oil traders is the Strait of Hormuz, which, you know, that is the key pathway. Iran has harassed and disrupted global shipping in the past. So that's going to be a big question mark hanging over this market where so much flows through.

Carl Quintanilla (3:25)

A quarter of all supply moves through there, although we do have headlines this morning from the Maritime officials that traffic in the Straits is operating normally as for now. Sara mentioned some of the relatively dovish notes on oil. Piper is the exception this morning, David. We would not fade any oil price rally. This is war. This is not a demonstration of capability like we saw in 24 and in 19 They add there is some 3 million barrels a day of productive capacity not used, all of which is within reach of Iran's conventional forces. So we'll see. There's a split on where crude goes from here.

David Faber (4:01)

I know. What do we expect the Saudis are going to do as well? We haven't said anything at this point, but there's always a possibility that they'll indicate a willingness to increase production.