Is Turkey the new Iran?

Allison Kaplan Sommer (0:01)

Hello, and welcome to the Haaretz Podcast. I'm Allison Kaplan Sommer in Tel Aviv.

Israel has been fighting for several years now a multi-front war. Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, the West Bank, and of course, Iran. But last week, another country suddenly moved to the center of Israel's security concerns, Turkey. On August 18th, Israel struck the Abu Al-Dahur military airbase in northwestern Syria. That's about 70 kilometers from the Turkish border. Israel said it was acting to prevent an expansion of the Turkish military presence there based on intelligence that Turkey planned to deploy troops and military systems, including radar and air defense capabilities. Turkey and Syria both denied that there were plans for any kind of permanent Turkish military presence at that base. But that strike triggered a sharp escalation between Israel and Turkey, with Washington warning that the situation could spiral into a direct confrontation between two US allies and NATO partners. US envoy Tom Barack, he's the envoy to both Syria and to Turkey, called the strike an unnecessary escalation. He said that Washington was working very hard on any mechanism that would prevent clashes between Israel, Turkey and Syria. Since then, last week, the temperature has come down somewhat with Israel and Syria holding talks under US mediation, discussing ways to revive the security negotiations that have been frozen for a while. Israel triumphantly declared that the Turkish expansion has been stopped due to its confrontation, due to its drawing a red line here to help us explain what exactly happened here and why Turkey has emerged as such an important player in Syria and the wider region and what that means for Israel is Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center.

Hi, welcome to the podcast.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak (2:07)

Thank you very much for having me.

Allison Kaplan Sommer (2:08)

Let's start with the airstrike. Prime Minister Netanyahu says that Israel acted to prevent a Turkish military buildup in Syria. Barack suggested that the strike may have been intended to provoke Turkey and escalate into a direct confrontation and both he and the Turks and the Syrians and a lot of political opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel are suggesting that there were political and not security motives behind the move. How do you see it? Do you see it as primarily a legitimate Israel security move or was Netanyahu maybe taking a political risk with the coming election in mind?

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak (2:45)

Well, first of all, I would like to refer to this introduction regarding the Israeli opposition. The Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid also backed this operation. And I believe, according to my impression, from the Israeli press, also the Israeli military apparatus, the Israeli Defense Forces is also backing this operation. So this is the first issue. From the Israeli point of view, it was required. And secondly, the timing. Of course, obviously, there are many different commentators that they are pointing their fingers to Netanyahu, that he's seizing the opportunity in order to get more popularity and public approval at home. So he initiated such an airstrike. This is understandable. And maybe from Netanyahu's perspective, maybe the timing is also working for him in order to increase his popularity. But I also believe that as an Israeli citizen who is focusing on Turkey, I think this airstrike was required.

It was necessary because at the end of the day, Israel is not interested in confronting Turkey directly. So when we are looking at this airstrike, we're going to see that Israel conducted a very surgical operation so that no casualties were reported. This airstrike was conducted prior to the arrival of the Turkish armed forces to the base. So from an Israeli perspective, we can say that it was a clear message to Turkey.

Please do not come, please do not expand towards the south and remain where you are so that we can avoid a future confrontation. I know that it's very weird that you're trying to persuade your opponent in order not to clash your conducting an airstrike. Because again, according to the Israeli sources, the Israeli statements that were given to the Syrian administration, as far as we understand, unfortunately, the Turkish side, they did not take this into account and they do not think that it was a serious warning. As a result, we saw the Israeli response.

Allison Kaplan Sommer (5:04)

We have, I don't want to say evidence because a lot of this is classified stuff, that Turkey was warned about this before Israel took action and did not take the warning seriously.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak (5:15)

As far as we understand from the Israeli press, yes, this is the thing. There were many reports that Israel made it very clear to the Syrian administration so that they should warn Turkey not to take these kinds of actions. But as far as I understand, the Turkish side ignored it and they thought that maybe it will not happen because of the fact that it is not taking place in central Syria, but rather in Idlib area, which is considered as a natural Turkish influence zone in northwest Syria. And I think this is the most important game changer from the Turkish eyes. Israel is sending a message to Turkey, even do not make these kinds of deployments also in northern Syria.