Is Trump Really Planning to Invade Cuba?

**Michael Bustamante** (0:00)
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**Ravi Agrawal** (0:01)
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**Michael Bustamante** (0:03)
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**Ravi Agrawal** (0:17)
Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.
Is Cuba next? Ever since the daring capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January, the White House has signaled it has eyes on Havana. President Donald Trump said he would, quote, have the honor of taking Cuba, implying a full-scale invasion. Officials have also floated the idea of finding a Cuban Delci, a reference to Delci Rodriguez, Maduro's former deputy who cut a deal with Washington to become his successor.
But before we even get to the question of how Cuba might be next, I think we need to explore why we're having this discussion. Why does Cuba matter for the White House? How did we get to talking about an invasion? And crucially, what would be the right policy approach towards a country that is now failing on most key metrics of governance?
That's coming up. But first, here's my read on something in the news this week. Here in the United States, it is Independence Day on July 4th, and I felt this could be a good moment to reflect on America and the World Cup. Before the tournament started, there were real fears about immigration policy, about ticket prices being too high, about transportation between venues. All of those concerns were valid, and we had an entire episode about it.
But there is also another side of the country the world is seeing this summer. Social media is brimming with videos of visiting fans who are actually having a wonderful time. Ignore the politics for a minute. Ordinary people at bars and diners are actually quite welcoming. There are well-known problems in the United States, from gun violence to healthcare nobody can afford. But it's easy to forget that America is quite a sight to the foreign eye. It is still the world's biggest economy. There is a lot that is truly impressive. And there's also a lot that actually works. Europeans, for example, can't stop remarking how common air conditioning is, especially as their people back home suffer through a massive heat wave.
The tournament is also showcasing the breathtaking diversity of America. In my city, New York, you could be visiting from Brazil, and you will find a Brazilian bar packed with people in yellow and green. You could be from France, and there is no shortage of French watch parties to attend. Across the United States, there are huge immigrant communities from all the World Cup participants deeply rooted in American society. Haitians, Scots, Argentinians, Moroccans, even Iranians. TV and media coverage of the World Cup have been critical where needed. But they have also been awash with imagery of fans from different countries just getting along, organically and naturally. Just as America's soft power seems to be declining globally, it's a reminder that these things run much deeper than policy. Happy July 4th.
OK, on to this week's interview. What exactly is Trump's Cuba policy? Why is there talk of an invasion? And what would it mean for Havana's future? My guest this week is Michael Bustamante, a great thinker and writer on Cuban-American relations. He is the author of Cuban Memory Wars and teaches history at the University of Miami, where he is also chair in Cuban and Cuban-American studies. Let's dive in.
Mike, welcome to FP Live.

**Michael Bustamante** (4:08)
Thanks for having me.

**Ravi Agrawal** (4:11)
So as I mentioned, we've had months of rhetoric out of the White House now about taking Cuba. There are also strict new sanctions on Havana and an effective oil blockade. Mike, these all seem like sticks and no carrots.
What is your understanding of the broader White House strategy on Cuba?

**Michael Bustamante** (4:33)
Well, it's a great question to take at the top and a tough one, because I think some pieces on the very abstract level of what this White House is trying to pursue are clear. It gets a little muddier once you get beneath the surface level.
Look, at the basic level, this White House is hoping to see big political and economic change in Cuba. It's no secret that Cuba is a one-party state. It's also no secret that our secretary of state as a Cuban-American has long had an interest in seeing that country open up economically and politically.