Is Trump making America weaker?

James Rubin (0:02)

This is a Global Production.

Christiane Amanpour (0:04)

Iran wants absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz, and America doesn't want to give Iran absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz.

James Rubin (0:14)

Boy, that was painful to watch Iran manipulate the American electorate in that way.

Christiane Amanpour (0:19)

It's not the first time, Jamie, that the Iranians have held America hostage, literally, until the end of an administration.

James Rubin (0:29)

It's going to be a big election. We're going to find some important things out about what the Israeli people want for their future.

Christiane Amanpour (0:36)

It was pretty, pretty dicey what Russia did this weekend.

James Rubin (0:42)

They are now in a war mode, and they are prepared to put their people through enormous suffering.

Christiane Amanpour (0:48)

I mean, could this kind of pain be as painful as that was all those years ago? Hello, everyone. This is the latest episode of The Ex Files with me, Christiane Amanpour in London.

James Rubin (1:03)

And Jamie Rubin here in New York City.

Christiane Amanpour (1:06)

And we have two questions for you because they're really worth a deep dive into.

Is Trump making America weaker, as some pundits are saying, by all these wars, by all the things that are going on in the Pentagon? And later on, we're going to talk about Israel and ask whether it is running out of allies. So two important issues when it comes to the Middle East and the superpower of the United States of America. So Jamie, is Trump making America weaker since the war in February? Let's just not forget that he said it would last only a little while, maybe four to six weeks. And it's gone on, I don't know, count the months, every week, I have to count on my fingers. But what is it now? Seven months, at least, since the end of February. What do you see in terms of where we all are, as to whether this is solidifying America's authority or not?

James Rubin (2:01)

Well, I think, analytically, it would be hard to dispute the fact that this war hasn't gone the way the United States wanted it to.

In any description, whether the objective was to overthrow the government, which clearly didn't happen, whether the objective was to destroy all of Iran's missile capability, which didn't happen, whether it was to weaken the position of Iran in the region, that clearly didn't happen. The biggest problem I see right now is that Iran is a country, as you know better than anyone, that is run by a group of people who are trained and live and breathe the word resistance and war, and war mentally, physically, religiously, and they are now in a war mode. And they are prepared to put their people through enormous suffering, whether that's through direct crackdowns or through suffering economically. And that makes it pretty tough to get them to bend. And they haven't bent. In fact, they've not even accepted a deal that most people thought was pretty damn good for them, and instead are in a long-term struggle with the United States and are doing terrible damage to the world economy and particularly to the ability of Middle Eastern countries to export their oil. So all in all, the United States is bogged down in a never-ending military situation, which requires enormous resources, and is trying to force a regime that doesn't seem willing to bend, to bend. And so it's analytically, by any reasonable measure, not a good thing.

Christiane Amanpour (3:42)

Yes. Now, it must be said that the phase that Trump and the Americans are in right now is the maintenance and the escalation of their blockade on Iran's ports, which is really having a massive impact on Iran's economy, and may or may not end up having an impact on domestic turmoil inside the country, and may or may not end up threatening the regime again, as it did, economic pain did back in December, January, with those huge, huge protests that were brutally cracked down.

Now, also, Jamie, I've been told, because there's a lot of different reporting, the latest very interesting New York Times report by Farners Fassi, he was very well plugged in, is suggesting that there is a complete disconnect between the power system there, all the constituent parts are not together on this, the president, the foreign minister who want to keep the negotiation possible, and not be overwhelmed by the United States, either militarily or indeed economically, versus the very hardliners who've consolidated power in the absence of any supreme leader who can actually stamp authority, they're claiming his mantle and are saying, with his authority, we have now entered the escalation phase, because we don't believe that negotiations can get us what we want. On the other hand, I've spoken to a very well connected former government official myself who says, that's not entirely the whole case. Actually if that was the case, then it would only be in one time when these Iranians, you remember, surprised the United States, basically broke the ceasefire by firing on those three warships or tankers or whatever they were, and that escalated and started the war again. No, but that's continuing that kind of move. And that actually the whole consensus is around the objective right now, and that the issues are very clear and very difficult to sort out. Iran wants absolute control of the Straits of Hormuz, and America doesn't want to give Iran absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz. So I don't know, Jamie, before we go into making America stronger or weaker, I know these two are not particularly friendly nations as we know, but they do need to actually sit down and discuss. I mean, the idea that the Pakistani military chief is the negotiator has not produced a huge amount of good results right now.