Is the U.S.-Israel Special Relationship Over?

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Rated PG-13, may be inappropriate for children under 13

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Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.
So is the special relationship between Israel and the United States over? According to an essayist in FP's latest print issue, the partnership has peaked, and the only way is down. Why is that, and how did we get here? In a moment, we'll speak with the author of that essay, Joshua Leifer, from Israel. That's coming up. But first, I thought I'd give you my read on the story of the week, the potential deal between the United States and Iran to formally end the war. I'm recording this on Wednesday, the 17th of June. On Friday, officials from the United States and Iran are expected to meet in Switzerland to sign a memorandum of understanding. Some details about the contours of the agreement have emerged, but those details are scarce, still being negotiated, and very much open to changes. In the here and now, the prospect of a deal is being met by size of relief around the world. Oil prices have fallen, stock prices are jumping, and that's just on the news of the deal. As I said, no one has verified details, and ships aren't yet passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Remember, the overwhelming majority of countries never wanted this war, and they want it to end now.
If the Strait of Hormuz is indeed reopened, it will mean that oil and natural gas and fertilizer and helium, among many other commodities, will once again begin to pass through this very important choke point. It won't happen immediately, but the hope is that we get there, and that's good news. But I have to remind you, that is essentially the status quo before the war. And so it is worth asking, what did war achieve? And a reminder, as we digest news about the deal when it emerges, Iran's regime is still the same one as before. Yes, it is weakened. It has suffered damage to its military and navy, but its new leaders are more hardline, more vengeful. The details on the nuclear program are still TBD. Iran still has a robust ballistic missile program. It still intends to fund Hezbollah. And if war breaks out once more, Tehran can shut the Strait of Hormuz again. They just have a new playbook.
My own take is that war was counterproductive and ruinous. Not only has it cost a lot of money, it will cost billions more to replace spent US munitions and repair damaged US military bases. And that doesn't even account for the damages countries in the region will have to address. The Middle East is hardly safer. Gulf countries are scrambling to figure out either how to navigate a dangerous new Tehran or to accommodate it. Both options will bring a lot of flux and potentially divisions among the Gulf countries. And on the nuclear issue, the Trump administration seems keen to compare their MOU to the Obama nuclear deal. But crucially, that deal came without a war and without the weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz, which is where we now are.
This week and next, President Donald Trump will try to sell the opposite narrative to the American people. The idea that this was a big win for America. Make no mistake, Iran's leaders will also be spinning a victory to their people. We'll have to see what people end up believing. The reality is, no one has really won this war, as we've been discussing on this show for weeks now. It's been painful all round.
But for now, if we do indeed have a deal, one thing is for sure. The global economy can avoid some of the very worst slowdown projections many of us had begun to fear.
Now, as the dust settles on this, it's also worth asking what this deal means for the US-Israel relationship. After all, Israel would have rather continued war, not only on Iran, but also on Hezbollah in Lebanon. That is a good segue to our discussion today. Are we looking at the end of the US-Israel special relationship? The question is part of a series of essays in our summer print issue, The End of the World as We Know It. And in it, we explore several quote unquote endings, the transatlantic relationship, the UN, neoliberalism, international law, and much else. Do take a look. So let's dive into one part of that series, the US-Israel special relationship. Is it really ending or is that just a provocation? My guest to discuss this all is Joshua Leifer, columnist for Haaretz and the author of Tablets Shattered, The End of an American Jewish Century and the Future of Jewish Life. As you'll hear, we refer to some charts in this conversation. So this might be a good episode to watch on our site, foreignpolicy.com/live.