Is Polymarket's Oracle Problem Getting Out of Hand? - Uneasy Money

**Taylor Monahan** (0:00)
The circle has to at some point realize that this decision to push all responsibility. You can't do it.
Because again, once you push all that responsibility to the courts, you can't say no to the courts. And this is one thing that Tether does very well, is they have a lot of thresholds and things that have to happen, depending on the facts and circumstances. But they sort of always retain that final say. And even when they do get like an order, they say like, we just happened to voluntarily freeze this. Like yeah, you served us, but like we froze it all on our own.

**Kain Warwick** (0:45)
Hey everyone, I'm Kain Warwick and welcome to Uneasy Money because what happens on chain never stays on chain. Before we begin, here is a word from the sponsors that make this show possible.

**SPEAKER_3** (0:56)
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**Kain Warwick** (1:17)
All right, everyone, I'm here with my co-host, Taylor Monahan, Weird Hotel Expert, and Luca Netz, CEO of Pudgy Penguins Igloo, Inc.
We were trying to get a guest today, but after Iliya, everyone was too scared to come on the job. So you have to go and check out that show. All right, here is our first segment of the week. And this is going to be fun because I love flooding my own bags and I'm a Polymarket investor. So let's get into it.
The question is, did Polymark resolve the master market wrong incorrectly? So this is a very interesting story for a bunch of reasons. One, because why the fuck is MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin? That's the first thing. This should never have even gone close to yes. How did we allow this to happen? This motherfucker promised us he was never, ever going to sell any Bitcoin, like it would never leave his cold dead hands. And then he was like, ah, like, let's just sell like 32 BTC to see what happens. And it's not going well. Like, why? I'd like that that still why like, why do you sell some Bitcoin?

**Taylor Monahan** (2:37)
That's what I've been traveling. So I've been like half online.
Why sell 32 Bitcoin? I don't understand. It's not that much. It's not it's like, did they misuse the math and like, I don't know.

**Kain Warwick** (2:49)
No, no, no, it was like a it was a bit of like a shit test. The market, I think, Dyson in thing person is like if there was any, if there's any question about whether the guy running the giant Bitcoin Ponzi was crazy, we have answered that like there there there's a bunch of theories about why, like, you know, whatever. But basically, my take is he was playing chicken with the market, and the market has now him. So, congratulations. That was not a good idea. And I just think like that, like, the idea that, you know, people somehow or would be reassured that he would sell Bitcoin to like cover, you know, these these dividends if needed, is not reassuring, not the reassurance we were looking for. Anyway, so as usual, people were betting on whether this would happen. And I think that there were like three or four markets about like, you know, would would they sell Bitcoin before May 31st, before like August or like before the end of the year or whatever. And like, my whole take looking at these markets is like, they might be forced sellers. Like if something goes horribly wrong, maybe sailors forced to sell Bitcoin, right? I don't think anyone who is betting on this market necessarily thought that like, he would do it as a joke, as some kind of weird joke or trick or something. But anyway, here we are. So, he did and then we don't really know when because he doesn't tell us, right? The only way that MicroStrategy tells us when they bought the Bitcoin is usually when he's top ticked it and the price of the Bitcoin is like 85 grand and it's like, we just bought a billion dollars of Bitcoin at like 92 grand and you're like, wait, what? Like, how did you do that? It's like 10% above. So, usually he would top ticket. But here, they're like, we sold some Bitcoin. They sold 32 BTC, 2.5 mil, somewhere between the 26th and the 31st.
The people who were betting, yes. This was like not a huge amount of money at first, if I understand it.