Is OpenAI's Agent Breach a Rogue AI Problem or a Basic Security Failure?

David Z. Morris (0:00)

They want the controls, ostensibly, to be internal to the model, and for them to basically, again, act with volition to guide their own decision. My opinion is that that will prove to have been a wild misconception that wasted a lot of time and energy over many years, compared to just standard cybersecurity applied to these models.

Austin Campbell (0:22)

Hey everyone, welcome to Bits and Bips, where we explore how crypto and macro collide one basis point at a time.

We're here today to discuss the latest stories in the worlds of crypto and macro, but two points before we begin. First, we've got our own channels now. Remember to subscribe. Secondly, a quick commercial break.

SPEAKER_3 (0:42)

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Before we get started, I want to ask you for something. We're making a bunch of decisions right now about Unchained. What we make next, when we go live, what we should be doing more of, and I'd rather hear from you before we make them than after. So we put together a survey. It takes just a few minutes, it's anonymous, and there's a box where you can tell me what we could be doing better. I read all the responses. The link is in the show notes, or you can snap the QR code on screen, or go to unchainedcrypto.com/survey. Thanks.

Austin Campbell (1:31)

All right, everybody, welcome back. I'm your host, Austin Campbell, High Scholar of Zero Knowledge Group. I'm here with my usual co-host, Ram Ahluwalia, Maester of Wealth, Leader of Lumida, and a guest who I'm very excited to have on, David Morris, who is the-

David Z. Morris (1:48)

I hope you're talking about me.

Austin Campbell (1:50)

Yes, at Zero Knowledge. So as he would tell you, conflict of interest alert, maybe conflict of ideas between me and David. We'll find out. Perhaps.

Let's start with debasement. Is the debasement trade back? September payrolls came in at 29,000, knocking an October Fed hike mostly off the table. Yet, if we look at 10-year yields, the 10-year is back above 5.3. In fact, as I'm looking at it on the screen, I see 5.311 for the 10-year. So, this is still the highest it's been since 2007 The long end buybacks haven't pulled down yields. France's BOD spreads are now at their widest since 2011 And the question is whether markets are pricing in fiscal debasement and whether Bitcoin is the trade among other things. So, like, Ram, let me set this up, and then I would like your opinion as an investor. So, one, 90K expected jobs, 29K actual, unemployment is 4.2%, but I want to note the number of non-working adults is continuing to go up as people fall off the back of the unemployment list. Yields are not coming down. Tenure fell to 5.17, it's back to 5.33, the 30-year equally stubbornly high. Treasury took in 6 billion of an October 1 buyback, and long yields are kind of ignoring it. France's tenure hit almost 5, the highest since 2002, and Anthony Gutman at Goldman said, we need to lower fiscal deficits and we need more durable economic growth. So let's look at markets. Bitcoin, eight-month high Sunday near 87K. Q3 is 43% up.

Vanessa Grellat of Arch Capital, the debasement trade doesn't require low interest rates. And Stephen Coltman at 21 shares said, the Fed will be forced to choose between the inflation mandate and orderly functioning of debt markets. Citi put its 12-month Bitcoin target at 113K, up from 82K.

And Delphi Digital is arguing that yields above 5% offer an attractive alternative to other risk assets, implying maybe this is a little overheated. Ram, how are you looking at this? Are you seeing this as a debasement trade? What are you buying?

Ram Ahluwalia (4:20)

I wish we could take Austin's context and dump into Claude. That was the most elaborate context setting. Hit Claude and go.

We need to get the agents to join us on the show. I think we're going to talk about agents later.

David Z. Morris (4:32)

Yeah, stay tuned.

Ram Ahluwalia (4:34)

That should be fun. No, this isn't the debasement trade come back, because if you look at the prices of commodities like gold, gold just isn't doing well. It's not too far off from 52-week lows. It's near the lows, not near the highs. So this is more of a Bitcoin-specific story having to do with four-year cycle and short covering. And the other data point for that is you look at, say, software stocks. Bitcoin and software have been moving together.