Is Everyone Wrong About the Dollar? | Macro Mondays

**Andreas Steno** (0:00)
Summertime is maybe good, summertime is maybe shit.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (0:22)
Hello there, welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to Macro Monday. My name is Mikkel Rosenvold. I'm your usual host these Mondays, finally back after a few weeks in sunny Italy. And I'm joined as usual by my co-host Andreas. Welcome to the show, Andreas.

**Andreas Steno** (0:38)
Thanks, Mikkel. Finally, the temperatures have dropped a bit here in Copenhagen after, I think, a new record hard in temperatures on Saturday. So it was a nasty weekend for us without ACs, to be honest.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (0:54)
Old-time highs also in temperature recordings in Denmark, Andreas. Not the old-time highs we were looking for maybe, but it's the ones we had. We have a great show for you today. We're going to answer some of the most red-hot questions out there in markets. Are we back to a war in Hormuz?
Has the dollar topped? Will the dollar top? And what is the situation in markets? As we look into a week of very, very interesting both number prints, but also a speech from Kevin Warsh that we're going to preview a little bit here and give you a sense of where we are on markets. Before we get started though, remember this show is part of Real Vision.
We have dropped our prices to the lowest levels ever on Real Vision as part of our summer campaign. We are building a new Real Vision. It's very much community driven. You get so much value from Real Vision, whether it's on the connect or for approach here. So if you've been lurking around watching our free show Macro Monday, maybe wanting to test out the waters at Real Vision, now is the time to go. Check out realvision.com/pricing to secure your future today, in my opinion. It's some very, very good offers. I was beginning to wonder, Andreas, if these price cuts had impacted our now casting and brought the inflation measure down so much. Maybe that was the cause, but I'm not sure that Real Vision is big enough to draw that down single-handedly, even though they are very, very great discounts. Okay, enough salesmanship here, Andreas. Remember, guys, this is our free show where we give you a sneak peek into the macro in geopolitical research that we publish on Real Vision. We try to be as actionable and concrete as possible as we dive around the world of global macro. But please do remember that our opinions and analysis might be...

**Andreas Steno** (2:43)
And sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (2:47)
Absolutely. Andreas, I have to say you nailed it last week with the Micron quarterly reports. Was that your best call this month as we are heading towards the end of June, or what's the one you've been most proud of?

**Andreas Steno** (3:01)
Well, it was a good call, but we've had a pretty volatile week and month in memory stocks overall. It seems like there's kind of an angst that we're approaching a top again, which is in my opinion unsubstantiated. We can get back to that. But beneath the hood of our pro portfolio, we also had a huge multi-bagger development in one of our biotech healthcare old health stocks.
Probably the first breakthrough in depression drugs in 50 years. I'll leave that there as a cliffhanger. But yeah, it has moved my wealth in the positive direction. Let me put it like that and hopefully also some of our members.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (3:47)
That's what we're here for Andreas at the end of the day. So that was the sometimes maybe good, what was sometimes maybe bad in the month of June Andreas?

**Andreas Steno** (3:55)
You know, our data has been fairly vocal that dollar inflation is coming down, that everything related to the straight-up moves and that energy spike and all that has come to an end.
But it's not like the market is listening really, if you know what I mean. So I guess that's kind of in the flip side. We do have some positions in our portfolio that are very sensitive to the dollar and you know, the dollar, just before we went on air here, the dollar made a new top versus the Japanese yen. It's actually printing at the highest level since 1986, before I was born today. So the dollar has been stronger than I had anticipated. That's probably been the flip side.

**Mikkel Rosenvold** (4:44)
Interesting, Andreas. And we'll get right back to that in a moment and a bit of outlook on that. Overall, a very interesting month. And obviously, we're heading into an equally interesting June, July address. Let's pause a bit on one of the young young developments that you mentioned, the situation in Hormuz, because, you know, I thought things were mostly done with a memorandum of understanding, but apparently we still have a weekend war going on where there is some fighting every weekend and then we get our Sunday hopium and everything is good again. So we had obviously Iran is the way I see it, trying to maximize their leverage, maximize their outcome of this war. They're trying to establish some sort of control over the Strait of Hormuz, enabling them to levy sound tolls, essentially to some degree, and the US is not having that. They've had it with the humiliations, essentially, of Donald Trump here, as I see it, and hit back at the Iranians.