Is Belarus Preparing To Invade Ukraine?

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**Mike Baker** (0:42)
It's Tuesday, the 23rd of June. Welcome to The Presidents Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, is Belarus preparing to invade Ukraine? As Kyiv issues new warnings and tensions rise along the border, we'll separate the facts from the speculation and explain what's really happening with Russia's closest ally.
Later in the show, Iran is already receiving economic benefits from its agreement with Washington. We'll examine just how they're benefiting and what the US has yet to secure in return.
Plus, Taiwan's military is preparing for the possibility of conflict with China, of course, kicking off a major combat readiness exercise designed to test how quickly its forces can transition to a wartime footing. And in today's Back of the Brief, have you ever asked yourself, how does Vladimir Putin know what the Russian population is really thinking? It's a good question to ask. According to a new report, the answer may involve secret polling, social media surveillance and regular briefings delivered straight to the Kremlin. And I, for one, am shocked that the Kremlin would be engaged in surveillance of any sort. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
If you've been paying attention to the war in Ukraine, you'll have noticed there's been a lot of concern around the nation of Belarus recently. Over the past several weeks, Ukrainian officials have issued a series of increasingly urgent warnings about their northern neighbor. President Zelenskyy has accused Belarus of helping facilitate Russian attacks on Ukraine. Kyiv has reinforced positions along its northern border. And just days ago, Zelenskyy gave Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko a one-week ultimatum to remove Russian signal relay stations that Ukraine says are being used to support attacks on Ukrainian territory.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders have reported a sharp increase in Russian reconnaissance drones operating through Belarusian airspace, while Belarus has continued hosting Russian military infrastructure, joint exercises and Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
So naturally, one of the questions that all this raises is, is Belarus preparing to get more directly involved in Putin's war on Ukraine?
Now, there is reason for concern here. If you'll remember, Belarus allowed itself to become a staging ground for Russia during the 2022 full-scale invasion. Russian forces poured across the Belarusian border and drove toward Kiev in the opening days of the war. While Belarusian troops never formally joined the fighting, Lukashenko's regime did provide Russia with territory and airfields, logistics hubs and infrastructure that proved critical to Moscow's initial assault.
In recent months, Belarus has hosted joint military exercises with Russia, including nuclear drills, while Moscow has expanded its use of Belarusian territory for drone and missile operations.
But despite the increasingly heated rhetoric, there is very little evidence that Belarusian troops are preparing to join their Russian colleagues on the ground in Ukraine.
Military analysts note that an operation on the scale of the 2022 assault would require tens of thousands of troops in a massive logistical buildup. Ukrainian commanders say that they see no evidence of that kind of force assembling in Belarus. Simply put, if Russia intended to launch another drive on Kyiv through Belarus, it would be difficult to hide. So if an invasion isn't the most likely scenario, what exactly is worrying Ukraine? The answer appears to be that Belarus is becoming increasingly important to Russia's war effort, even without sending Belarusian soldiers into combat. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian reconnaissance drones are making greater use of the Belarusian airspace. Reports indicate that Russia has expanded drone related infrastructure near the country and is increasingly using Belarusian territory as a corridor for surveillance and strike operations against Ukraine. As mentioned, Ukraine has also accused Belarus of hosting signal relay stations that help support Russian attacks. Zelensky's recent ultimatum was directed specifically at that infrastructure, warning that if Minsk failed to remove the equipment, Ukraine might take action. Zelensky has also accused Belarus of supplying refined fuel products that help sustain Russia's war effort. And that may be the key point here. The greatest danger facing Ukraine may not be a sudden Belarusian invasion. It may be the gradual transformation of Belarus into an extension of Russia's military machine. That concern has only intensified following a report released this week by Belarusian opposition figures. The opposition argues that Lukashenko has spent years preparing Belarus for a possible wartime role, pointing to constitutional changes, expanded mobilization measures, rising defense spending, and deeper military integration with Russia. Of course, it is worth noting that opposition groups do have every incentive to portray Lukashenko as a growing threat. Their claims should therefore be viewed with some caution. But it is a fact that Belarus is moving closer to Russia militarily.