Interest Rates Explode: 'Everything Blows Up' Once This Level Hits | Chris Vermeulen

**Chris Vermeulen** (0:00)
I mean, the last time we saw the 30-year trade this long, this many times in a year was back in 2007, just before a financial crisis. Obviously, if it goes there, everything blows up. I'm not a believer in this rally just yet. I wanna see higher pricing, I wanna see more time. I don't wanna see this fizzle out over the next two or three weeks.

**David Lin** (0:19)
When would you start putting on your contrarian hat and say to yourself, everybody else is bullish, it's time to take things off the table? Markets are whipsawing on Thursday, August 20th, just yesterday, the Treasury announced that they would double bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation. The markets reacted violently, yields went down sharply lower, and stock markets rallied, the gold rallied 3% on the news, and Bitcoin rallied 5.5%.
Now today, interestingly, yields are going the opposite way. So the 30 year is now back up above 5.23%, 5.25. Now it's back up 1.1% today. So whatever happened yesterday didn't last very long. Interestingly, gold and Bitcoin, which have historically held inverse relationships with the yields, they went up today. Gold is still up, seeing a bid up almost 1% now to $4,580, and Bitcoin is back up above $72,000.
So Bitcoin is seeing the biggest surge in months, possibly since last year. Is Bitcoin finally starting to wake up? Is there a rotation away from stocks into gold and Bitcoin happening right now? And what should we do? We're going to get all these answers and much more with Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist at the technicaltraders.com. Chris is going to give us his outlook on gold, Bitcoin, stocks and yields, and teach us the principles of trading that he's been following for quite some time. This video is brought to you by and sponsored by Kalshi. It's the largest prediction market in the United States.
Unlike a sportsbook, you're trading peer to peer on real world events from economic data to political outcomes, and the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below or scan the QR code here and use my promo code LinLin. New users who use my code can get $25 when they trade $25. Kalshi is CFTC approved and available in all 50 states, including California and Texas. Right now, there's a trade for how high will the S&P get this year? This is the question, the fundamental question we'll be getting from Chris today is how high the markets can get and how far can this rally go? Trade is replacing a 57% chance that the S&P will go above 8,000 points. We're currently at 76, 78 If you believe that the S&P will get to above 8,000, 8,000 or above, and if you place $50 on this particular trade, your payout could be $79 or more, if you're right. Chris, welcome back to the show. Good to see you.

**Chris Vermeulen** (3:06)
And thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure.

**David Lin** (3:08)
Where do you want to start today? So many things we can discuss.
Let's bring up the biggest market movers over the last couple of days. And I want to start with, let's start with Bitcoin and gold, maybe gold first, and then we can move back to the broad equity markets. We usually start with the equity markets, but gold and gold miners have been really wild in the last 48 hours. So I want to start there. Gold back above 45.58, 45.50. And yeah, the rally that started in late July took a bit of a breather last week and renewed yesterday. So let's look at the charts. Let's look at what's going on. As you can see, exactly that huge rally early August plateaued around 4,400 and then just yesterday started moving up again.
So what's the picture?

**Chris Vermeulen** (4:02)
Yeah, so there's mixed signals in the precious metals space, right? And it really depends on the type of investor you are. Obviously, if you're a very short-term trader, you can see precious metals, gold, silver miners, they're in a very strong rally here. But when we step back, look at the bigger picture from the way that I invest in precious metals is I want to be invested in precious metals when they are in a new bull market phase, when they're having hopefully the next multi-year lag higher. And so right now, it hasn't started that, in my opinion. We still have a series of lower highs. We have a series of lower lows.
And while we've had a nice rally or bounce here, I mean, we have seen similar bounces in rallies of this size already take place many times and they have eventually failed. So when we look at gold, this green 150-day moving average is kind of my long-term view or cycle on the market of, hey, it's trading flat or it's sloping down. Price is below it. That is usually the definition of we are in a correction phase for gold. And so gold is rallying up into resistance. It's had a very nice move this week, but it was based on news. And that always scares me when you have a strong bounce and everybody becomes very bullish and excited. We're seeing people pile into gold miners like it's going out of style. Everybody's jumping into the leverage plays around here thinking things have turned around it. And maybe they have.