How Science Fiction Explains the U.S.-China Trade War

Tracy Alloway (0:12)

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

Joe Weisenthal (0:16)

And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway (0:19)

Joe, do you like science fiction?

Joe Weisenthal (0:21)

You know, it's one of those things where I like it more in theory than in practice. And by that, I mean, I like the-

Tracy Alloway (0:28)

What does that mean?

Joe Weisenthal (0:29)

By that, I mean, I like the idea of being into science fiction, and I try to get into it every once in a while, and then I forget about it, and I'm like, oh, I should read more science fiction.

And it never seems to happen. Does that make sense?

Tracy Alloway (0:43)

You know, most people don't like the idea of being into science fiction, but secretly actually like it, and read or watch a lot of science fiction. Yeah.

Joe Weisenthal (0:52)

I didn't know that.

Tracy Alloway (0:53)

You're the opposite.

Joe Weisenthal (0:54)

Oh, is that because it's seen as dorky or geeky or something like that, or? Yeah. No, I could see that.

Tracy Alloway (0:59)

Yeah, exactly.

Joe Weisenthal (1:00)

No, every once in a while, I try, but then I just forget.

Tracy Alloway (1:04)

Okay, but you know Star Trek, right?

Joe Weisenthal (1:06)

Yeah, yeah, I used to watch it pretty regularly.

Tracy Alloway (1:09)

Oh, okay. So then do you remember what the mission or the prime directive of the Star Trek Starfleet was?

Joe Weisenthal (1:22)

No? No, I don't think so.

Tracy Alloway (1:26)

All right, well, I'm gonna read it off Wikipedia. I don't want people to think that I know this by memory.

So the prime directive is a guiding principle of Starfleet prohibiting its members from interfering with the internal and natural development of alien civilizations. The prime directive applies particularly to civilizations which are below a certain threshold of technological, scientific and cultural development. So basically, the more advanced civilization that is Starfleet shouldn't go around bullying or influencing less developed civilizations during their space exploration.

Joe Weisenthal (2:06)

So at first, I was about to ask what on earth this had anything to do with markets or economics or anything that we normally talk about. But that last point kind of makes me think that there might be an analogy to some developments that we're seeing today.

Tracy Alloway (2:24)

Yeah, I think you know where we're gonna go with this. And that is, of course, the technological war, I guess you could say, between the US and China.

Joe Weisenthal (2:34)

Right, and we've talked about this before on the show, but the implications are so massive, these tech fights, the race to control certain important technologies, so critical that we really probably can't talk about it enough.

Tracy Alloway (2:51)

Yeah, and the person that we're going to speak to on this is, as far as I can tell, a science fiction fan. And I have to say, one of the more unusual analysts that I have met in my entire career in financial journalism, before I came on to the show, I actually just looked up his profile because I wanted to make sure that I got the job title right. And his job description on LinkedIn is galactic energy commodities, space mining, and unobtainium research at Jefferies. So that gives you some idea.

Joe Weisenthal (3:28)

I can't wait. So who is this we're talking to who has such an awesome job title?

Tracy Alloway (3:34)

All right. It's Laban Yu. He is an analyst over at Jefferies, actually an energy analyst, I believe, but writes a lot about broader issues in China. So Laban, it's really good to have you on the show.

Laban Yu (3:49)

Yeah, thank you for having me. Thank you for that introduction.

Tracy Alloway (3:53)

I have to say that wasn't the only job title on your LinkedIn. I also saw a galley slave at Macquarie and Padawan Lerner at Lehman Brothers.

Laban Yu (4:04)

Yes, I guess my LinkedIn profile was a bit of my little joke against LinkedIn for using our content for their profit. So I did have a little laugh at their expense, I guess.

Tracy Alloway (4:21)

So are you a science fiction fan?

Laban Yu (4:23)

I have to say I am. I don't think I am a raging science fiction fan, but I do follow it.

And it's important more and more because there's a lot of things in science fiction now that really pertain to what we see happening in the world.

Joe Weisenthal (4:42)

What are the key things that you read and think about in the science fiction realm that you see happening in the world? Obviously Tracy brought up the Star Trek Prime Directive and the US attempting to interfere with Chinese technological development. What are sort of the big themes in sci-fi that influence your thinking right now on what we see in the world?