How Immigration Broke German Politics

Andrew Heaton (0:06)

Oh, I've been to Germany, all right. About 20 years ago, hopped a train to Berlin, and every couple of stops, I'd look out the window to see if I'd arrived at my destination yet. The first time that I glanced out the window, I saw a sign on the platform that read, Ausgang.

Sounds pretty, Ausgang. I bet they have good beer there. A few more minutes went by, the train stopped again. I glanced out the window at the stop to see where I was. Ausgang again. And I think to myself, wow, Ausgang is a pretty big town. I'm surprised I've not heard of this German town before, given its dimensions.

It's maybe the fifth time.

That I see Ausgang noted on the sign of a train stop, that I started to get suspicious. Been a couple hours maybe. And I think, how many Ausgangs are there in Germany?

So I signaled to a fellow guy on the train. I signaled to him and he looked at me and I went, in Schildegung, ich spreche keine Deutsch, Sprechen Sie Englisch? Which is about all of the German I know. Because I'm a very polite foreigner and I wanted to indicate, hey, I know that I don't speak your language, but wouldn't it sure be neighborly if you spoke English? I really appreciate that. I know I don't belong here, but I figured out how to say I don't speak German, you speak English. The guy, of course, he speaks English. They all speak English, but we did this little song and dance. And he goes, yeah, I speak English. And I go, great. Hey, mister, where is Ausgang? Are we in Bavaria? Are we? Where are we exactly?

And this man gives me a very confused look and says, Ausgang means exit. And that is how I accidentally went to France, which is an entirely different country for now.

Of course, when I blundered my way into that entirely different country by accident, lo, these many years ago, the political fault lines in Germany were very different, and in France as well. The Germany of that era, as I recall, seemed to have things pretty well figured out. The big debates were over whether or not to have still water or water mit Gasser as the default at restaurants. I'm on the mit Gasser camp. I like a little bit of bubbles in my water. I feel like we should live it up in this brief life we find ourselves in. The really heated conversation that I encountered was plate breaking arguments about whether or not you could cross the street when the crosswalk light is red if there are no cars coming. And weirdly, I do not recall anybody ever thinking that was okay, but there were a lot of people that were bothered that someone might hypothetically think that's okay. Really though, for real, what the Germans were arguing about was taxes and spending and regulations. Germany at the time, as I recall, had high unemployment, so Chancellor Schroeder wanted to loosen employment labor regulations to make it easier to hire people. Very familiar argument that we've had many times in variations in America and in Europe. How much government intervention do we want in the labor market? One side thinks, we need less. The red tape is burdensome. It is strangling jobs, hurting the economy, raising unemployment. The other side thinks, no, we need more. Workers need protections. The government needs to balance out the power differential between the little guy and big corporations. And there were talks about spending and austerity. Germany is the sick man of Europe. We must get the deficit in order and cut back welfare benefits to stop economic stagnation. Nine, do that and you will disassemble the beloved German social model. The next thing you know, people will be crossing crosswalks when the light is red, even when cars are coming. How dare you imply, I would support crossing the street inappropriately. This is slander. It is forbidden by law. I will see you in court. That kind of thing. Because back then in Germany, and in the UK and in America, the fight was big government versus limited government. Adjust for your nation's quirks and political weight distribution, but that was kind of what we were all arguing about. But now, the fault line in Germany is very different, because the wedge issue has changed, there and here. It's not whether you want more or less government that is really of issue, it's whether you want more or less immigration.

In 2024, the AfD, the anti-immigrant party of Germany, and the long-time bettenoir of German politics, became the largest party in the state elections for Thuringia. The first time German nationalists had won an election since World War II. The AfD subsequently got second place in Saxony and Brandenburg. Last year, the AfD doubled its seats in the federal Bundestag elections to become the second largest party. Then, in September of this year, the AfD made a dramatic breakthrough in Saxony and Holt. Which sounds pretty. I imagine they have good beer. But they did well in the parliamentary elections in Saxony and Holt, winning the parliament with nearly half the seats. In this month, Tobias Rausch of the AfD won the speakership of that state's parliament. And he did so, incidentally, with the support of the left populist party. Because when the relevant wedge issue is immigration, you can have the equivalent of MAGA and the commies on the same side as long as they agree on the immigrants.