Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms?

Dan Pfieffer (0:21)

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Today, you're going to hear my conversation with Amy Walter, the publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report. The midterms are now less than two weeks away. I thought Amy would be the perfect person to set the scene as we head into the final stretch. We talked about the latest in the Senate races, the House map, whether Republicans redistricting gambit worked, and voters' attitudes towards Trump, the economy, and the war on Iran, and so much more. We'll get to that conversation in a moment, but before we do, Crooked Con is fast approaching. The weekend after the midterms, November 5th through 7th, we'll be in DC for a weekend full of live shows, conversations, and so much more. If you're anyone working in politics or interested in politics, this is a can't miss event. We'll be breaking down what just happened in the midterms and getting the stage for what's to come in 2028 Head over to crookedcon.com to get your tickets now. And while I have you, I want to make a pitch for the message box, my sub stack newsletter. It's the best way to get serious analysis of the midterms based on the data and my way too long experience working in politics.

When the election happens, I'll help you understand what happened, why it happened, and what it means for 2028 I have a special pre-election discount for Pod Save America listeners. Go to crooked.com/yes we Dan to get 20% off for an entire year. Okay, here's my conversation with Amy Walter. Amy Walter, welcome back to Pod Save America.

Amy Walter (1:31)

Hi Dan, I'm very happy to be here.

Dan Pfieffer (1:33)

A little more than two weeks ago before the election. It feels like we would never get here. These are going to be the longest two weeks we've had in a very long time. How are you feeling?

Amy Walter (1:42)

I'm tired. And I feel like every voter in a swing state who's saying, just let it end, just let it be over.

As you very well know, the last two weeks of the campaign and probably the last five days are the absolute worst. Because it's now everybody just hosting theories and conspiracies and conversations they had with someone they went to high school with and what does this mean? And, you know, we're not going to get any polling, I think that's going to make us change any of our theories of the case of this election between now and election day. We're really basically locked in and we got to wait for the results.

Dan Pfieffer (2:38)

Yeah, I'm counting on some more polls, I'll be honest with you. I feel like Nate could. And you're kind of saying it owes you some more polls, yes.

Amy Walter (2:44)

We're going to get more polling. I'm just saying, I wouldn't expect that all of a sudden you're going to open up polls that show, oh, wow, this is real. Oh, so-and-so is open to seven-point lead now.

Dan Pfieffer (2:56)

Yeah, that's right. So you wrote back a few weeks ago on October 7th that this political environment is as brutal for Republicans as any you've seen in at least 20 years. We're now a couple of weeks, a week and a half after that.

I assume that assessment still holds. Why is this political environment so brutal for Republicans?

Amy Walter (3:12)

And Dan, you remember this election quite well.

We're all coming back. This feels very 2006 deja vu because you have a president with an approval rating under 40%, which is where George W. Bush was at this point in 2006, an unpopular war, and corruption being sort of the center of the conversation in Washington. Back then, it was Jack Abramoff. Now, it is all of the things. There are also some sex scandals that were going on in 2006 We have that carryover in 2026 But really a feeling among the American public about a deep, deep frustration with the direction of the country, even deeper frustration in 2026 with the direction of the economy, with inflation being a big factor.

But what you're also seeing, that reminds me of 2006, is the real energy and enthusiasm difference between Democrats and Republicans. For most of the Trump era, even when Democrats were more enthusiastic in 2018, Republicans didn't fall through the floor, right? I mean, it helped that the Kavanaugh hearings came out a couple of weeks before the election. I think that helped to energize some of those less engaged Republican voters. So that was something of a boost. But I think even going into that election, the expectation was that there were going to be some places where, because of how badly Trump was doing with independence and how motivated Democrats were, those swing seats, those seats that Hillary Clinton won, those were going to be all but impossible for Republicans to hang on to. But that, how deep into the Trump seats they could go was limited by the fact that Republicans showed up. This year, and I think this was the case in 2006, how deep Democrats go into Republican territory is really driven by the fact that independents are going to show up for Democrats, Democrats are going to show up for Democrats, but are Republicans going to sit home or are they going to show up? And every indication we have right now is that they're not enthusiastic, they're frustrated with the president for a whole range of reasons, but mostly the cost of stuff and the war in Iran. And we've spent, how much money has been spent in the last three weeks in these races, right? Millions and millions of dollars. Yeah, more than 200 million dollars. To try, exactly. And if you're in Alaska or Texas or Ohio or Iowa, your goal isn't to try to win persuadable independence, it's you are sending signals to your base about why it's important for you to turn out. And thus far, I mean, to me, what's the most telling in some of the polling we've seen recently is that opinions of the Democrats remain above water and opinions of the Republican candidates are below water, which says, boy, you've spent a lot of money and I don't know that you're getting what you thought you were gonna get from all of it.