GTA 6 Launch Trade: Boom or Bust for Take Two?

**Dave** (0:00)
Gta 6 pre-orders have been live for a week now. What we know so far, it's $80 a copy, $100 if you want the ultimate version. There's no disc in the box, there's no online mode at launch, still no real gameplay trailer. People complained about all of that, then they pre-ordered anyway, fast enough that it is topping the bestseller charts at every major retailer, and the game doesn't even come out for another four months. Trailer Two already did 475 million views in the first 24 hours. It's the biggest video launch ever. Analysts think that this thing might sell 25, maybe 30 million copies on day one. GTA 5, by the way, did 11 million. So here's the actual question for Wall Street. Everybody already knows this is going to be massive. That's already priced in. The real trade is whether massive is enough. Today on Dumb Money, will the GTA 6 launch trade be a boom or a bust for Take Two?
This is Dumb Money Live.
Hey there, Dave here. Welcome to Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live.
It is 4th of July, eve, the eve of the 250th birthday. I'm wearing my 4th of July shirt here. Chris, what are you guys doing for the 4th?

**Chris** (1:17)
I'm doing nothing, man. I've just been traveling every single day for the last three weeks, dude. I'm just going to hang at my house. Maybe grill some meat. I'm sure Jordan's doing the same, right?
I'm going to my pool.

**Jordan** (1:32)
Yeah, poolside, just chilling out. Nothing huge. Just hanging out with friends.

**Chris** (1:38)
Less is more than this, for sure. So, man.

**Dave** (1:43)
Let's get into it. I mean, Rockstar. Oh, I forgot we have to tell you to like the like button or smash the smash button. So, go ahead and do that before we go too much further.

**Chris** (1:55)
Why don't we start by just admitting that Gta 6 is not a video game launch, okay? This is the IPO of a digital country. You know that, guys.
I mean, the market's modeling how many copies are sold, but the real question is how many people are going to move into this world and never leave. I mean, that's what you need to be thinking about as an investor.

**Dave** (2:17)
Well, they haven't even shown us that they're doing the world. We're expecting that they're going to try to monetize and create the creator environment where people can buy and sell video game stuff, but is that a foregone conclusion?

**Chris** (2:36)
Well, the fact they've been working on the game for 10 years, yeah, it absolutely is. I mean, this is not about box office weekend. Box office weekend is really important, but really all that it is an indication of how big the annuity is going to be for Take Two. If you think about it, everything that happens between now and game launch is just a signal of how much engagement and time and community they can build around this game for the next five to 10 years. I mean, that's all that actually matters, right? This is either going to be the next Roblox style platform or it's not.
If you're an investor long term, that's all you really care about. You don't care about if they sell a few more games on day one than people expect unless that's an indication of something bigger because people are more hyped and this game is actually delivering on everything that they wanted. People have been dying for the past eight years waiting for it.

**Dave** (3:45)
But there's been so much negativity online around pretty much everything they've shown, which is not much. They haven't shown any gameplay action. And what they have shown is they're not planning on, at least on initial launch, having any kind of online multiplayer interactivity. It's a single player game.
And people say, have they lost their edge? The thing that made it cool was that it was such a different game. You've never seen a game with such debaucherous imagery, and they're not showing us that imagery. Have they lost the edge?

**Chris** (4:24)
I mean, agreed that there's a bear case here, which has nothing to do with demand. Demand is going to be huge, right?
The bear case's expectations are just become too psychotic. So, man, Dave, they were never going to launch. They were never going to launch online.

**Jordan** (4:43)
They were going to disappoint like that, right? And there's no way, like they know what their audience wants.

**Dave** (4:50)
Well, their audience wanted this five years ago.

**Jordan** (4:52)
We see otherwise, right? I mean, it should follow the same formula as before, obviously with the added internal economics that they're going to release.