Government Shutdown Underway, Negative ADP Jobs Report, Nike Beats 10/1/25

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David Faber (1:01)

Market insight and analysis. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

Carl Quintanilla (1:06)

Good Wednesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Quintanilla with Jim Cramer, David Faber at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. We kick off the month of October with the first government shutdown in seven years. Futures are weaker. Tenure yield at a one-week low as September ADP comes in negative, worst print since March of 2023 Roadmap begins with nine hours now into a shutdown after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a deal on spending.

David Faber (1:31)

The shutdown means Friday's jobs data probably will not be released, but we did get a key private payrolls report this morning showing the biggest decline in two and a half years during the last month. We're keeping an eye on shares in Nike. They are rallying, at least in the pre-market, some optimism around the company's turnaround plan that at least those who were along the stock hope is gaining momentum. Thank you.

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Carl Quintanilla (1:55)

Let's begin with this government shutdown now underway. The Senate failing to pass legislation last night before the midnight deadline. Republicans, Democrats blaming each other for the stalemate. CBO says about 750,000 workers would be furloughed each day. Employees deemed essential like TSA agents, members of the military will be forced to work without pay. Jim, if this lasts into the BLS reference week in mid-October, those furloughed will get counted as unemployed. Some say it could take the rate up to 4, 7 maybe, we'll see.

Jim Cramer (2:26)

Yeah, and I think that this is the one number that could surprise. Everyone is pretty complacent about it. Some people were 700,000, some are 900,000. What if it's over a million? A million people are furloughed. I mean, that's going to ding the economy. And then I was wondering, I saw Palantir down today. In Palantir, I said 50 goes to 100, 100 goes to 150, 150 goes to 200 But this is a company that does a lot of government business. So does ServiceNow. And now, I don't think these companies are long-term affected, but maybe the people who they're trying to appeal to, maybe they're furloughed. Now one thing I know when you mention this, these companies are very smart, and they will tell me not to worry. I think the perception is that you should worry. I'm sure Palantir is going to get his business. I know Bill McDermott is doing an amazing business. And by the way, it's really the only SaaS company that I think is triumphing over AI.

But David, the fact is that if you're trying to sell the government, don't you think those are the people who may not be around?

David Faber (3:24)

The people, you mean in the government who you're trying to sell to? Yeah. But again, doesn't this go back to the idea of how long?

Jim Cramer (3:31)

Right, it does.

David Faber (3:32)

And if it's a handful of days or even a week, not really an issue. But if it's weeks or longer, then we're going to be starting to talk about the real impact of what I would assume every day in a much more significant way.

Jim Cramer (3:46)

I think we're starting with the Fat Generals, no?

David Faber (3:49)

They're all on their way back.

Jim Cramer (3:50)

They're on their way back.

David Faber (3:52)

They're making them walk, Carl.

Jim Cramer (3:54)

It's GOP-1. I know you've got to talk to Senator Kennedy, but it's clear that the Fat Generals are going to be furloughed.

David Faber (4:02)