Fed Rate Roulette, Wall Street’s AI Hangover, and Musk vs. Zelensky | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu (0:00)

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Tom Bilyeu (0:31)

Ooh, inflation came in much hotter than expected. And if you analyze or annualize the trend, the numbers are brutal. We're going to be going through that. The AI bubble just registered another massive earthquake that has investors running for the door, but the response has been super weird. The bond market, looking at all the AI distress. If you put it all together, that is deeply humbled Scott Besson. Every investor needs to see what is happening in the bond market. And speaking of things you need to see, Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster reveal was so insane it seemed fake and it's completely dividing the internet. Was it a stock pump stunt or real innovation? You guys are going to judge for yourselves because we're going deep on that one. Elon is appointing himself the judge of Zelensky as the Starlink Ukraine White House conspiracy gets even crazier. The Ilhan Omar story just keeps getting worse as the Wall Street Journal drops a new report making bold claims about what is really going on. All of that and more live today on the Tom Bilyeu Show live. Welcome everybody. All right. You may notice that Drew isn't here. The intro to this show is getting a little too real. He is skidding in. He'll be joining us in about a half an hour. Until then, we're going to be diving deep on the economy, and shout out by the way to, you know, I love these guys, Tailor Brands. If you guys are building a company and you want to know how to make everything in your life easier, check out what's going on with Tailor Brands. They've got an incredible offer going on right now.

They're going to make everything easier for you, whether that's making your LLC legit, whether it's getting help with setting up your systems. Tailor Brands makes starting a business simpler by helping handle the administrative pieces so that you guys can actually focus on building your business. So start your LLC, let Tailor Brands help you file all of the online paperwork and just a few clips and establish your actual business. Guys, take advantage of this stuff, getting your EIN number, becoming, getting a registered agent, licenses, permits, bookkeeping, business banking, payments, all of that and more. These guys have got it. All right. It is a wild time out there. Inflation came in much hotter than expected. And if you annualize the trend, the numbers are really getting rough. The producer price index, which is basically wholesale price inflation, not basically, that's exactly what it is. It rose by 1.3% in September. That is the biggest monthly jump since March of 22, which you'll remember, it was bad times back in 22 This was all an echo still out of the COVID era.

And it's the second largest jump ever recorded.

Ouch. Year over year, PPI hit 6.3 against an expected 5.3.

You want to know what's brutal? That one is brutal. Core PPI came in at 5% versus an expected 4.4%.

Even if you strip out food and energy entirely, wholesale prices still rose by 0.7% in a single month. That's more than double the forecast and the fastest pace in four years. If you're Trump and you're staring down the midterms right about now, ooh buddy, you are not loving life. All the things that he said that he was going to be getting down, they are going in the wrong direction. The consensus for the September month over month PPI was around 0.6%, but it actually came in at 1.3%.

Guys, these numbers are wild. Now, the way that things are actually playing out through the markets as a whole though is completely unexpected. But the 0.7 monthly miss is a pretty big surprise. Headline PPI typically lands within 0.2 to 0.3 of whatever the consensus is. So being off by 0.7 is very unusual. The last stretch of misses that were of this size, again, we're talking back in COVID era, 21, early 22 We had wild supply chain disruptions from COVID. Then the Ukraine energy spike just kept blowing out all of the forecasts. So man, the world is in such a weird place right now that it is becoming truly difficult to predict where things are going. And when it becomes difficult to predict, markets are going to be a little bit crazier than normal. Now, what makes all of this embarrassing for the forecasters is that the energy disruption is pretty damn obvious. I don't think anybody is confused about what's going on with the war in Iran. I don't think anybody's confused. You can see diesel is hitting record numbers. You can see that pump prices are up 9% in the CPI.