Extended Interview: Brett McGurk

Margaret Brennan (0:00)

So October 6th, 2023, Saudi Princess Reema Bandar shakes hands with you on a deal meant to normalize relations or start normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, create a pathway for the Palestinians, give Saudi the civilian nuclear deal. And within hours, this incredible attack happens in Israel.

Why in the book do you argue that those two things are connected?

Brett McGurk (0:28)

Well, the first market is great to be here. And I try to just tell this history. It's chronological, but I really try to bring the reader into the room. And the book starts about three days into the Biden administration. President Biden asked me to go see the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia about some significant changes we're going to make in Saudi policy, including cutting off various weapon systems and a number of steps.

And the Crown Prince in that meeting kind of put on the table the possibility of recognizing Israel, a kind of big breakthrough possible deal. And we didn't really pick that up until about a year and a half into the administration. And I describe, I think, that was lost time and unfortunate. But once we did pick it up, we made some real progress on it, and we had a package of agreements, including the Palestinian Authority was working with us on this deal. And on October 6, you're right, I had a Saudi delegation in my office with Princess Reema. Tony Blinken was about to go to the Middle East. And we had mapped out, I still can't say if not for what happened a few hours later, we definitely would have gotten the deal, but it was definitely, it was moving in that direction. And we were quite confident, and Reema and I shook hands on, by the end of the year really to have this in place, and then talk about the rollout of it in the first quarter of 2024

And then what happened just a few hours later, obviously knocked that issue off, off the agenda and everything else. I think it's tragic because I think that deal, when you step back, if you look at what was happening just a few weeks before the events of October 7th, we're now the third anniversary.

You had things happening that had not happened in 55 years. You had a senior Saudi official visiting Ramallah in the West Bank to see the Palestinian Authority. First time since 1967, you had Israeli officials in Israel, Israeli officials in Saudi Arabia. And I think a package that would have set the foundation for what is now a UN Security Council resolution market, a credible pathway to Palestinian state determination and statehood. That's what we were talking about. Hamas, of course, does not recognize Israel, wants to destroy Israel. And I would not be surprised if one of the motivations on October 7th was to knock this agenda off the table.

Margaret Brennan (3:01)

Do you believe that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar knew that there were these plans for a Palestinian pathway and normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia that factored into his thinking?

Brett McGurk (3:13)

We never saw anything to tie a direct connection. I never saw anything to tie a direct connection. But certainly it was known that this deal was moving in that direction. I mean, Hamid bin Salman said it in September, that this was one of the biggest deals, that could be one of the biggest deals since the Cold War.

Margaret Brennan (3:32)

Transformed the Middle East if it had happened.

Brett McGurk (3:34)

Yeah, so it was very much in the new. But I think October 7th had been planned from what we later learned for a period of years. And this is not something that just suddenly put together.

But I learned about the attack that night around midnight from Mike Herzog, the Israeli ambassador, got a call from the Situation Room. Also, it was rocket attacks and then cross-border attacks. And events kind of unfold. I describe it in the book of, as a crisis unfolds, you learn and you see jagged pieces. And it still wasn't clear even by daybreak when I was at the White House and eventually saw President Biden later that morning, just the scope and the scale of what was underway.

Margaret Brennan (4:17)

Well, you wrote that the US had no clear warnings nor did the Israelis from what they told us. But you leave open the idea that there were missed signals.

Was this a total intelligence failure?

Brett McGurk (4:29)

I think, Mark, so we have really looked at it. We did not have anything in our system that would have been a warning and indicator.

Margaret Brennan (4:37)