Every Time Bitcoin Did This, a New All-Time High Came Next! | Truth Block

Nico Moran (0:00)

There's one Bitcoin signal that's gone 7 for 7 Every time it fires, a new all-time high comes within 75 days. This cycle, it fires at 88k. And last Tuesday, Bitcoin came within $2,000 of it. Then the scares started. An Ethereum researcher told the world AI could crack Bitcoin's cryptography within months. Hackers drained about $90 million out of tampered hardware wallets. And Bitcoin got knocked all the way back down to 80k. So is someone trying to keep Bitcoin under that line? And if it breaks through anyway, could we really be looking at a new all-time high by Christmas? Today, I'll show you exactly what has to happen for that to play out, and why most of it already has. This is TruthBlock. I'm Hurley. Let's mine truth.

OK, before we get into it today, give me your gut call in the comments right now. New all-time high by Christmas, yes or no? And if you're not subscribed yet, hit that button so you don't miss what happens after 88k.

OK, let's get into it. Bitcoin is sitting just under 83k this morning after bouncing off 80k on Friday. Bonds are closed for Columbus Day, and the next big test is Wednesday's inflation report. Last week's drop had plenty of help from oil and the worsening bond crisis like we covered on Thursday. But despite that, Bitcoin continues to hold in the low 80s. So let's start with the signal.

Timothy Peterson went through Bitcoin's entire price history using AI and found a pattern that hasn't missed yet. Every time Bitcoin crashed more than 50% below its all-time high and then closed back at 30% below it, a new all-time high followed within 75 days. Usually it took about 3 weeks. Now look at this cycle. Bitcoin bottomed about 53% below its high back in June, right around 58k. Last Tuesday it closed about 31% below the high. The all-time high was around 126k, which puts the line right around $88,000.

But here's the most interesting part to me. $88k is also right around where Bitcoin started 2026 So the same price that turns this year green is the price that fires a signal that's 7 for 7 Now to be fair, 7 is a small sample. And there were a couple of close calls in 2019 and early 2022 where Bitcoin rallied into the zone and rolled over. But the last two times the signal fired coming out of a bear market, the new high came 30 days and 23 days later. Peterson thinks we crossed the line later this month. So what has to happen for us to get there?

Let's start with what already has. A lot of people are calling for this cycle to top out around 170k, where the trend line connecting the last three cycle peaks sits today. Superbro says that's way too conservative, and I agree. Before 2025, every bitcoin cycle went parabolic above that line. 2025 was the first one that failed to, and the business cycle explains why.

Manufacturing never turned up. Now the ISM manufacturing index has been in growth for nine straight months.

That's the real rhythm underneath the old four-year cycle myth. The having never timed those tops, the business cycle did, and it just turned back on, which is why BitQuant posted this over the weekend. In a year, he says, I'll be able to provide undeniable proof that 126K was a mid-cycle top, not the cycle top. But by then, that information will have no added value. Tom Luongo, who writes the Gold, Goats and Guns newsletter, went through the quarterly close on every major asset last week, and Bitcoin stood out.

SPEAKER_2 (3:15)

Okay, so the quarterly close, this is an interesting thing, as of again this morning, that the quarterly close is for the market report, and I was going through all of them, right?

And gold and silver were, gold was bearish but kind of neutral. Silver was bearish and bearish because it was an outside bar to the downside, but we broke the Q2 low, so it was less strong than gold. But then Bitcoin was a one-bar bullish reversal against the three-quarter downfall. This is the peak at one point. Three bars down, one-bar bullish reversal, when there was a 95% chance of it going lower than higher at the beginning of the quarter, and it held below and then reversed to the upside. The Bitcoin bear market from a technical perspective is now over. And since then, since October 30th, last Wednesday, a week ago today, well, I've been watching every time I look up the Bitcoin, we're back to 85, cool, great. Oh, 86, 83, 86, 83, 86, 83, 5 Every day I wake up in a $20,000 roller coaster, every 24 hours, that's a tell.