End of War Trades

**Dave** (0:00)
Last week, Trump said that we are winding down operations in Iran. Then on Saturday, he announced a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to target their power plants if that doesn't happen. That 48 hours ends tonight. But this morning, the taco truck might be arriving. Trump says that talks with Iran are going so great that he's going to delay the deadline by five days. Specifically, he said that there have been very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities. Meanwhile, Iran says, there haven't been any talks at all. So there's that. Iran's parliament literally called it fake news to manipulate the markets. If all of this pattern sounds familiar to you, that's because it is the taco trade and the markets love a tasty taco. For the uninitiated, taco stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. He hates it, but he doesn't hate what it does. The Dow was up a thousand points this morning, the S&P up, the NASDAQ up, and we know that the war will end. And when it does, we basically got a preview of how fast the market is going to react. Could the end of the war be soon? From day one, the administration's been saying that this isn't a forever war. Trump says it's just a little short excursion. It could be over pretty quickly, and that there's practically nothing left to target. So our job is to think about what comes next, what happens after we declare a victory and go home, which stocks are going to be the winners and losers today on Dumb Money, our end of war trades. This is Dumb Money Live.
Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder, if you don't mind, smash the like button for the algorithm. The almighty AI overlords need to know that you're watching us right now. Chris, Jordan, we have oil prices down. It was down 10, more than 10% this morning, the whole five day pause in our 48 hour deadline, the Trump update on how amazing the chat's going with Iran. Iran saying that they haven't even heard from Trump. We could always go back to war mode with new threats and new attacks. There's always room for this market rebound to disappear. But we know at some point it will end, and we will see the market react. So first off, what do you think? Is this near the end?

**Chris** (2:11)
Who knows, Dave?

**Jordan** (2:13)
Who knows?

**Dave** (2:15)
We're just talking about before we went on.

**Chris** (2:18)
I think there are two trades here. I think the first trade is trying to fast trade the end of the war, paying attention to the news cycle second by second throughout the day. Maybe you have time to do that, maybe you don't. If you do have time to do that, there's a basket of stocks you obviously want to be trading. If you can get in them quickly enough, there's a tremendous amount of money to be made, going long and short those stocks, depending on the news of the second.
Now, there's another trade that I think is actually more interesting and more applicable that provides you with a longer window of time. And that's the, it's really ending, ending. And maybe you missed that first trade, but there will be more opportunity to get into these stocks that maybe aren't the most obvious stocks to light up at the end of the war. But certainly, the end of the war is kind of like the clearance for them to start what I believe will be a multi-week, multi-month move. So I really depend, I don't know, some people might want to do both. I don't really have the time right now to like fast trade this market. It's insane. Yeah.

**Dave** (3:35)
So what was your first instinct this morning when you saw market up? Like I immediately jumped on Robinhood to see where the most, hundred most popular stocks traded by retail investors on Robinhood and which ones were up the most. And there were so many that were up 5% or more, Carnival, Rivian, Trump Media, American Airlines, AMC Theaters. It's just kind of like all over the map, everything was up, right? So I didn't get a lot of like, oh, this is where to focus when the war really ends.

**Chris** (4:11)
I don't know. I think it's pretty obvious that if you want to fast trade this news up and down, the copper ETF seems to be like the most obvious way to do it. There is a decent amount of volume on it as well. So you get liquidity. This is COPX. To me, that is the go-to index to trade. Copper got destroyed every time the war was looking worse. And then this morning, it was popping pre-market 5%.