Downstream: The Next Big Shock Is Coming. Green Energy Is the Only Way Out w/ Tessa Khan

Aaron Bastani (0:08)

It's fair to say that here on Downstream we're on a bit of a roll when it comes to conversations around the climate crisis. In recent weeks, we've had Kevin Anderson and Bill McGuire, climate scientists, who are very keen to emphasize what's headed our way over the rest of the 21st century. And of course, these are timely conversations because Britain has just endured its driest warmest summer on record. Nevertheless, it's pretty reassuring that so many of you want to watch and hear these conversations. Today's guest is following in that line of thought, although it's somewhat different. Having established how big the crisis is, it's worth talking about what happens next. Even amongst people who accept the reality of climate change, you'll often hear the retort, well, that's all very well and good, but fundamentally I don't want to pay for it. There is, we're told, a bit of a contradiction. Attention in terms of addressing the climate crisis and transitioning beyond fossil fuels and the cost of living.

Today's guest couldn't disagree more. They insist that Britain is indeed energy rich.

It's just not with oil and gas, it's with wind in the North Sea. The politics of climate change for people seeking public office invariably boiled down to costs and opportunities. That's why people vote the way that they do. And my guest today is very, very certain of one thing. The opportunities for Britain when it comes to moving beyond oil and gas are immense.

Tessa Khan, it's great to have you on Downstream. Welcome to the show.

Tessa Khan (1:44)

Thanks so much. It's great to be here.

Aaron Bastani (1:45)

I haven't seen you in person, I think, since 2021

Tessa Khan (1:49)

Yeah, exactly. In Glasgow.

Aaron Bastani (1:52)

Yeah, Glasgow for COP.

Tessa Khan (1:53)

That's right. Was it COP26? It was, indeed.

Aaron Bastani (1:55)

There are so many, I lose track.

Tessa Khan (1:56)

There's one every year, apparently, so it's easy to do that, yeah.

Aaron Bastani (2:00)

Are you going to the one, the next one?

Tessa Khan (2:02)

No.

Aaron Bastani (2:03)

Have you given up on COP?

Tessa Khan (2:05)

No, no. I mean, it has a role to play. I think if you've always been realistic about how much these multilateral processes can actually catalyze national action, which is ultimately what climate change is. It's a challenge that involves every government in the world doing its part.

Then I think you kind of accept that it has a role to play. It's not going to be transformative, but it still has value.

Aaron Bastani (2:33)

What was the last one?

Tessa Khan (2:35)

The last COP was in Brazil. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.

Aaron Bastani (2:38)

Prince William went, I think.

Tessa Khan (2:40)

Did he?

Aaron Bastani (2:41)

That's my body memory is Prince William and his strides and his moccasins.

Tessa Khan (2:45)

Sounds about right.

Aaron Bastani (2:46)

That's the politics of climate change, isn't it? Yeah, exactly. For sort of liberal and patrician classes.

Tessa Khan (2:51)

Yeah.

Aaron Bastani (2:52)

We're talking today specifically about North Sea oil.

Tessa Khan (2:56)

Yeah.

Aaron Bastani (2:56)

We've had a run of really great interviews when it comes to climate change in the last few weeks and months.

Tessa Khan (3:01)

I hope not to disappoint.

Aaron Bastani (3:02)

You won't disappoint.

And I have to be real, when we tried to talk about climate change in the past, it hasn't always got the best numbers. People kind of were indifferent or whatever. But this summer's clue changed a lot. Another part of the conversation that's changed is Andy Menem is now the Prime Minister. And we have had quite a lot of spin about the Labour government under him opening up this or that site in the North Sea. So for people who are coming fresh to this, they know there is historically oil and gas in the North Sea that we can get.

How much is left in that basin?

Tessa Khan (3:39)

So basically, the UK North Sea basin is what's known as an ultra-mature basin, which is to say that companies have been drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea since the 1960s. Production peaked in the late 90s, and it's been in decline ever since. And estimates are that roughly 90% of the resource that's recoverable has already come out of the North Sea.

Aaron Bastani (4:05)

And that's oil and gas or just oil?

Tessa Khan (4:08)

That's oil and gas. And actually, what's mostly left at this point, more than 70% of what's left is oil. And so there is actually vanishingly little gas left.

And so the idea that the North Sea might be some kind of panacea for the UK's energy security, or that we could ever produce volumes that would make a material difference to the price that we pay for oil and gas, which is the thing that's really keeping people up at night and has been for years in this country, is completely non-factual.