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Kai Ryssdal (0:59)

There is a certain vocabulary element to the program today. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Ryssdal. It is Thursday today. This one is the 8th of October. Good as it always is. Have you along, everybody. From the Labor Department this morning came its regular weekly report on first-time claims for unemployment benefits. And on its face, it was good. And historically low, 197,000 people lost their jobs last week. Those first-time claims have now come in below 200,000 for four weeks running. That's the longest stretch since 1969

We do know, though, from Friday's jobs report that job creation in this economy is just kind of meh, honestly. And more than one in four unemployed Americans have been looking for work for six months or longer. You think you know where I'm going, right? It's a low-hire, low-fire economy, yada, yada, yada. Aha! Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has been forbidden to use that oh-so-overworked phrase.

Mitchell Hartman (2:18)

If not a blank-hire, blank-fire job market, then what?

Jay Hatfield (2:22)

They steady, quite stable job market.

Mitchell Hartman (2:25)

That's Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, who says the economy is in a precarious balancing act, contracting in some sectors, expanding in others.

Jay Hatfield (2:36)

We have what would normally create a recession, which is a hawkish-fed, high-interest rates and declining investment in housing.

Mitchell Hartman (2:45)

Balanced by red-hot investment in AI and data centers, creating new jobs in tech and construction. Kyle Moore at the Century Foundation offered this alternative catchphrase for the labor market.

Kyle Moore (2:58)

Stagnation situation.

Mitchell Hartman (2:59)

He says employers are stuck in the mud of policy uncertainty.

Kyle Moore (3:03)

When you have erratic tariff policy, for example, it makes it difficult to make consistent hiring decisions for how to expand going forward.

Mitchell Hartman (3:12)

This low churn stagnant labor market is especially hard for the long-term unemployed and new entrants to the workforce, because people who do have jobs aren't making room for them. Vicki Salemi at career site Monster says lately job seekers have turned.

Vicki Salemi (3:28)

More cautious about pursuing different roles. They're nervous and anxious about leaving the security that they currently have.

Mitchell Hartman (3:36)

Many are even willing to go without a raise rather than quit to find a better job.

Vicki Salemi (3:41)

Then the employer that they're with doesn't have an opening to replace them, and so other job seekers, there is no opening for them to pursue.

Mitchell Hartman (3:48)

What's Salemi's alternative metaphor for this job market?

Vicki Salemi (3:52)

It reminds me of a frozen pond. Workers, they're not necessarily falling through the ice because they're not getting laid off. They're skating on thin ice, sticking it out right now.

Mitchell Hartman (4:00)

Trying not to fall through. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

Kai Ryssdal (4:04)

Thin ice economy, I'd go with that one. Wall Street today, tech led the way down. Everybody else was along for the ride. We will have the details when we do the numbers.

The National Conversation Around Artificial Intelligence seems to have gone over the past year or two from, hey, this is great, to, huh, is it a bubble, to, wait, it's going to kill us all? That's the conversation we all have been having. But AI insiders in the San Francisco Bay Area have been talking about this stuff for years. Marketplace's Megan McCarty-Corino put her ear to the ground at a gathering in San Francisco.

Megan McCarty-Carrino (5:03)

An event listing for a picnic beckoned people in the AI scene to spend a Sunday afternoon talking about recent calls to slow down the technology.

Donny Christie (5:14)

Did anyone bring either water or sunblock?

Megan McCarty-Carrino (5:17)

It's one of those postcard perfect days at this five-acre park on the San Francisco Bay, overlooking a Giants-Dodgers game at the ballpark. Organizer Donny Christie chose this spot because it's between the offices of Anthropic and Open AI.