Do we believe the polls? The governor's race turns a corner | Snollygoster

Mike Thompson (0:00)

This podcast was recorded Thursday, October 8th at 10:24 a.m. Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Yeah, like as we all celebrate filling our gas tanks and paying only $3.99 a gallon, we'll remember that a year ago, we were paying $2.99 a gallon. Let's talk politics.

This is Snollygoster, Ohio's Politics Podcast, our weekly look at all those snollygosters, those shrewd politicians, who hope we all remember they suspended the state gas tax when we go to the polls. I'm Mike Thompson from WOSU Public Media. Coming up in the podcast, the check's in the mail, thanks to the winner of this week's Snollygoster of the Week Award. But first, election month has arrived. We all kind of point to the second Tuesday in November, but election day is a thing of the past. If you think about it, it's really election month and it began this week with the start of early voting. With turnout even more crucial in this election than in the past few cycles, early voting could play a huge role in deciding who will be Ohio's next governor and who will sit in the US Senate representing Ohio.

Some new polls out show Amy Acton has a lead in the race for governor. A Suffolk University poll done for the USA Today Ohio Network shows her with a whopping nine-point lead over Vivek Ramaswamy. 50% to 41%.

That poll included likely voters, but even its lead author questions whether Acton's lead is really that wide. Another poll out gives the Democrat an advantage in the governor's race. A Marist poll shows Acton with a six-point lead. 50% to 44% among registered voters, so that's a wider pool of voters there. Both polls go against every other poll that has showed the race tied within the margin of error. So do we believe the polls? Let's ask our Columbus On The Record panelist, Jake Zuckerman of Signal Statewide, where he serves as the politics and government reporter. Also, Republican strategist Mike Ganadakis and progressive activist Morgan Harper. Morgan, good news for Democrats, but do you believe Amy Acton is up by that much?

Morgan Harper (2:29)

Well, I don't think that Amy Acton and her team could ask for better polling results at this stage of the campaign. We've seen in a lot of prior races, polling is becoming a little less reliable, but I do think it shows that we are within the margin of error here, and it is likely going to come down to some last-minute decisions for a lot of voters, beyond those who are already very firmly in their camps. And so this is where we're going to probably see Amy continue to do what she's been doing for, I think now almost two years, traveling around the state, getting in front of as many people as possible, and with a strong message of why, as an outsider, non-career politician, she's going to be better for Ohio and not corrupt like Vivek Ramaswamy.

Mike Thompson (3:10)

How concerned are Republicans, if at all, by this poll? The Suffolk University poll is really kind of an outlier. Nine points. I don't see Amy Acton winning by nine points. I don't see her up by nine points at this point. And the same organization had Richard Cordray up by six against Mike DeWine when he first won. He lost, of course.

But is it concerning at all that she has a lead in both of these polls, Mike?

Mike Ganadakis (3:32)

No, I think to Morgan's point, the polls are less reliable today than they were back in the past. We have cell phones now. One of the polls only wanted to interview the youngest registered voter in the household. Why is that? Don't know. I didn't run the poll. But at the end of the day, Vivek's not up by nine. Amy Acton's not up by nine. It's a closer race. It's a midterm election.

And if it wasn't a midterm election, I think Vivek would maybe be up by nine. But it's not. We got gas prices. We got food prices. We got those issues. So when you look at these snapshots in time, there's believability, but it's just not believable. I think Vivek has significant more resources to spend. It doesn't matter how many county fairs that Amy Acton goes to. If she's not on TV 24-7 for the next 30 days, she can't get her message out. And it's crowded. It's a clouded field. You turn on the TV, who does that really anymore? We have DVR, but the ads are all over and mailboxes are full. So can you cut through the clutter?

Mike Thompson (4:25)

Jake, if you look at the candidate's actions, I mean, polls take them with a grain of salt, but the actions often tell you how much the campaigns believe what's going on. And Vivek Ramaswamy in the past few weeks has been more aggressive. Maybe he's trying to close the deal. Maybe he's seeing bad polling information.