Did the Iran War Succeed? - with Tamir Hayman and Mark Dubowitz

**Dan Senor** (0:02)
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**Tamir Hayman** (0:51)
Considering the situation now where nuclear threat was not handled thoroughly and the regime seems to be intact, considering the price Israel paid, Israel and the United States, in global arena, and of course domestically, the quick answer is no, it wasn't worth it. Hopefully, it's not the end of the war, but if you are forcing me to evaluate the situation right now, the quick answer is no.

**Mark Dubowitz** (1:22)
We have to go back and win militarily the battle for Hormuz or Iran will emerge out of this with a true strategic victory and a permanent threat and stranglehold over Hormuz. Now we have a fighting chance and I hope President Trump fights and doesn't negotiate with a regime that has no desire to give up nuclear concessions that meet the president's minimum demands.

**Dan Senor** (1:56)
It's 7:30 a.m. on Sunday, June 7th, here in New York City. It is 2:30 p.m. on Sunday, June 7th, in Israel, as Israelis closely follow the negotiations between the United States and Iran.
As of this recording, U.S.-Iran negotiations appear to be stalled, but not dead. The talks are still centered on an interim framework, what we've been calling a Hormuz-for-Hormuz deal, a 60-day memorandum of understanding, not a peace deal and not a nuclear deal. The core exchange, Iran re-opens the Strait of Hormuz and clears mines, the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, allowing Iran to sell oil again, and the unfreezing of some billions of dollars in Iranian assets. Outside of this narrow interim deal, a comprehensive nuclear deal looks unlikely in the near term, as both sides have reasons to avoid a wider war. So this is a moment that we thought here on Call Me Back, it would be a good time to take stock. The 40-day war that began on February 28th of this year obliterated Iran's air defenses, sank its navy, and destroyed its intercontinental ballistic missile program. It also left the regime intact, minus many key figures, with a new supreme leader intact, Mojtaba Khamenei, a man who reportedly believed for years that his father's nuclear restraint was a fatal mistake, and it did produce a ceasefire before the nuclear program was addressed.
The question now dividing serious people who all wanted Iran's nuclear threat eliminated is this, given where we are, how do we assess what the war achieved and what it did not achieve? To work through that question, I'm joined today by two guests who've each dedicated much of their respective careers to thinking about the Iranian threat. Mark Dubowitz, a frequent guest on this podcast, is the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and he's one of the most persistent hocks and astute analysts on the Iranian nuclear threat, which earned him the distinguished honor of being sanctioned by both Iran and Russia.
Mark also has an excellent podcast that we'll link to in the show notes on Iran. And retired general Tamir Hayman, who was the head of Israeli Military Intelligence for four years, just a few years ago, and he currently leads the Israel National Security Studies Institute, the leading national security think tank in Israel. Tamir has been a clear-eyed and at times sobering voice on what the war has and hasn't accomplished. Mark is more optimistic about the war's trajectory. Tamir, as you can tell from this introduction, I would say is more skeptical, but both of them are clear that they want Iran's nuclear program gone. And they are both focused on that at FDD and INSS. Mark, Tamir, thanks for being here.

**Mark Dubowitz** (4:47)
Thank you, Dan.

**Tamir Hayman** (4:48)
Thank you, Dan.

**Dan Senor** (4:49)
Tamir, I want to start with you. Just tell me where you think we stand now with the US-Iran negotiations and what you would say are the most likely outcomes based on what we know now.

**Tamir Hayman** (4:59)
Basically, Iran is conducting the negotiation on its own term. Mainly, that is to achieve the maximum benefit available for the Hormuz deal and delay the crucial and more painful concessions to a future potential step, too, that in my assessment, according to previous knowledge with Iran, will take forever and will not lead to any kind of a credible Iranian nuclear deal. Basically, they insist on achieving three main goals. One, they want money right now, not in credit, not delayed, not conditioned, a flow of money, whether it will be starting in 6 billion and ended up in 24, because the economy is in a dire situation. If they will not have some form of relief that they can provide immediately, that the mass in Iran will see something, they are in a major problem. And considering the fact that they know that they will drag the negotiation over the Iran deal indefinitely, that free flow of money will help them in the long term.