Deciphering the U.S.-Iran Deal

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**Ravi Agrawal** (0:32)
Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.
The United States and Iran have struck a memorandum of understanding to end the war that began in February. Will the deal last and what does it mean for the US, the Middle East, and the world? In a moment, I will speak with an analyst who has been among the most astute commentators of the war so far. That's coming up, but first, here's my read on things. The big question on everyone's mind is whether the MOU will hold for the 60 days and beyond. My instinct is that it will. Yes, it's a flawed deal. It includes Lebanon and there's every chance that Israel will play spoiler. A severe attack on Hezbollah might force Iran to abandon the deal and shut down the Strait of Hormuz once more. But I think the Iran's threshold will be higher than we imagine and the signatories will go above and beyond to keep the peace. Here's why.
The United States needed a deal for what I think are obvious reasons. The war had become too unpopular. Several polls show this. Oil prices were soaring and President Donald Trump's own ratings had also fallen to new lows. As I've been saying on this show, Trump had three options. Escalate the war, which could be costly and unpredictable. Play chicken with Iran, which may eventually have led to a win, but would have been even more costly in economic terms. Or he could strike a flawed deal. And I think that's the path that Trump picked because it was the least bad option.
Iran also needed a deal. Their economy has been devastated. And while they still have drones and ballistic missiles, let's not forget they barely have a Navy or an Air Force. And let's face it, the deal is actually quite favorable for Iran. It excludes any restrictions on its missile program. It makes no mention of Iran's support for Hezbollah or other groups. And the nuclear file is basically unresolved, which gives Tehran an opportunity to prolong negotiations indefinitely and win some more sweeteners. And then there's the money. Iran's frozen assets will be returned, sanctions will be rescinded, and there could be $300 billion of economic aid.
The reality is that, flawed though it is, Iran and the United States have every reason to abide by this deal. The main spoiler could be Israel. But even there, relations between the United States and Israel seem to be souring. As Vice President JD Vance said last week, the United States is Israel's only real ally. That was intended as a threat. And it's a signal that Washington no longer thinks it has to keep supporting Israel's fights.
The bigger point to keep in mind is that if this is phase one of the Iran deal, there might not ever be a phase two. This is a pattern for Trump. There was no phase two for Gaza, where more than a thousand Palestinians have been killed after the phase one deal. There was no phase two for Venezuela, where the leader Nicolas Maduro was toppled, but not much else really changed. If Trump really just wanted to get out of Iran, it's in his interest to promise a phase two or three as a way to ram through a phase one. To be clear, I see any end to the war as a good thing for the global economy. Just don't expect too much more after this.
OK, that was my read, but let's hear from a real expert now. Ali Vaez is the Iran Project Director at the Crisis Group. He's long been involved in track two dialogues with Iran and the United States. Ali's been on the show before and has really made a name for himself as a sharp analyst of this conflict and the region's future.
Let's dive in.
Ali, welcome back to FP Live.

**Ali Vaez** (4:36)
Delighted to be back. Thank you, Ravi.

**Ravi Agrawal** (4:39)
So when historians look back at this war, I imagine that the terms under which it ends will help decide who came out on top. So let's start with that. Both Tehran and the White House are spinning the MOU as a win.