Cramer's Morning Take: S&P 500 Winning Streak 12/18/23

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Jim Cramer (0:28)

I'm Jim Cramer, and you're about to hear a sample taken directly from today's CNBC Investing Club morning meeting. It's a dangerous time that doesn't mean sell stocks.

And one of the reasons I say this is because here we go with the S&P 500 making another new high. And if you had gotten out in October, I think you'd be very upset.

Jeff Marks (0:50)

No, absolutely. I mean, I think even thinking more broadly, you brought up so many different dates in that story of when it could have made sense to sell. The headlines were doom and gloomy. And this is throughout history, but we do have the S&P 500 making a new 52-week high today.

And that just kind of goes to show you that it just pays to hold on and hang in there throughout those difficult times through the doomsday headlines, because over the long run, if you're invested in stocks, you're gonna do well.

Jim Cramer (1:20)

There was only one time, and I talked about this in Giffords carefully, only one time they'd paid you, even if it was taxes, to sell and then buy back, which was 2008 That was the Great Recession, which was the worst time we've had since the actual Depression.

So, I mean, one time out of our lifetime, not bad.

Jeff Marks (1:37)

And think how quickly stocks came back just this year. I mean, it was, yeah, 21, that's when you made the highs in the market early, first couple days of 22 22 was a down year, but then the market's come storming back this year. So it's been a great year.

Jim Cramer (1:52)

And let's not forget, treasury yields, once again, they are lower than we thought they'd be. Remember, there was plenty of talk when the 10-year was at five, that we would soon see six.

And that turned out to be a major mistake by people who held that position, because they were very under invested, and they had to then scramble. And what we've seen is the continued scramble.

Jeff Marks (2:15)

Absolutely. And there was also the higher for longer cam, but then you have the Fed penciling a couple of rate hikes.

This was after their meeting last Wednesday. You do have some Fed members trying to walk back some of the commentary of what Chairman, Chair Powell said about cuts. Maybe the market getting a little bit ahead of itself, but of course it's all gonna depend on the data.

Jim Cramer (2:38)

Right, but the walk back flies in the face of the dot plot. Now, the dot plot where people project what's going to happen, if they didn't have that, if there weren't such a thing as dot plot, but then I think you would say, wow, you know what, I think there's gonna be cuts.

But because they have that, we can't just walk it back. I mean, that's kind of like, okay, here's our prediction, but we didn't mean our prediction.

Jeff Marks (3:00)

Yeah, you know, it's funny, the dot plots, they get heavily scrutinized. I remember a time when the Fed wasn't thinking about any rate hikes, and of course they hiked rates much more aggressive than when anyone initially thought. So you always have to take it for a grain of salt, but it does get a little bit of, provide some insight into how they're thinking.

Jim Cramer (3:19)

Yes, it does.

Jeff Marks (3:20)

They are thinking the hikes are over with, start thinking, the next move is kind.

Jim Cramer (3:26)

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SPEAKER_4 (3:41)

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