Cramer's Morning Take: Recession Odds 6/6/23

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Jim Cramer (0:32)

Jim Cramer here to share with you a sample of my take on the market from today's CNBC Investing Club morning meeting.

There's an overall tone, Jeff, that by Goldman Sachs lowering the odds of US recession, we are seeing the one group that I think has really been terrible, the banks, make a comeback despite the fact that the banks were recently told, you know what, you're gonna put more money up. What does that say to you?

Jeff Marks (0:56)

Well, I think that's a really good point. The lower recession odds come after the debt agreement, also seeing some stabilization in the banks too. And it comes after that really strong jobs report Friday, maybe strong Goldilocks on the wages side, strong on the job growth side. So I think as long as the labor market remains as strong as it is, then yeah, I would say the odds should be lowered of an imminent recession.

Jim Cramer (1:23)

And I want to make a strong case right now for Morgan Stanley. I know that James Corman is departing. But what matters is that Morgan Stanley got caught up in this whole process.

And the stock is exactly where it was when Silicon Valley Bank came out, because there were people who believed it may have put more capital. Now, a lot of the others that we're seeing, like the First Horizon, they're starting to make a comeback. Schwab making a comeback. But this is the one that I think had the best model and is being treated very subpar, it's almost 4%.

I think members should be buying the stock and buying it across the way.

Jeff Marks (1:53)

Yeah, and seeing more signs of debt deal activity as well starting to pick up again, which is good for them.

IPOs, CAVA, which is, if you haven't had it, it's a fast casual chain Mediterranean base. They're looking to IPO soon. So maybe we finally see some type of green shoots in that business.

Jim Cramer (2:13)

Well, what do you think it says about the people who continue to buy long bonds between 3.5% and 4%?

Jeff Marks (2:19)

Well, look, I think where rates are, it's hard to argue with a guaranteed safe investment like that, but at the same time, we know the market's had a very nice move over the same period as well, up almost 20% from the October lows. So just more signs that there's also ways to win in equities as well.

Jim Cramer (2:41)

And I want to point out that the Magnificent 7, which has been something we did six of the seven, we're very proud of, will probably rest here. There will be different stocks, particularly ones related to stimulus or ones related to what I regard as manipulation down and betting that everything was going to be Silicon Valley group can advance.

Join the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer to catch my member exclusive morning meetings every day at 10, 20 a.m. Visit cnbc.com/morningtake to become a member today. That's one word, morning take.

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