Cramer's Morning Take: Extraordinary Market Moment 11/29/23

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Jim Cramer (0:33)

I'm Jim Cramer, and you're about to hear a sample taken directly from today's CNBC Investing Club morning meeting.

Crucial day here, because we've got interest rates down and we have a number of stories that are up. I mean, I'm talking about big up. This is a critical day, because what we're seeing, Jeff, for the first time in my lifetime, is GDP growth at 5% with decelerating inflation. It's an extraordinary moment.

Jeff Marks (0:57)

Yeah, absolutely, and interest rates are falling. You have yields, haven't been this low in the 10-year, September, the two years since July, so just extraordinary moving rates.

Jim Cramer (1:08)

They were going the wrong way just then.

Jeff Marks (1:10)

Yeah, and when you do see this decline in rates, you do see some sectors tend to outperform, whether it's the real estate or housing plays. Stanley Black and Decker is one in the portfolio. The banks have been doing well, too, because higher interest rates have hurt their bond portfolios.

It's created some deposit cost headwinds as well. So you're seeing some lift in banks, too.

Jim Cramer (1:35)

And what's interesting is that, remember, one of the principal fears, let's go to the principal fears of the, go back into the October 3rd and 4th weeks, we had interest rates out of control, and therefore we were thinking that the government wouldn't be able to finance, and every auction would lead us going down. We were worried about what Jamie Dimon this morning at Andrews Wuerlstorken's excellent deal book conference, the most dangerous time.

All these true, and yet look at what's happened. It was a fear rally, and I'm glad we stuck with it.

Jeff Marks (2:07)

Yeah, even after about a little bit of a weaker auction yesterday, you do have, you know, maybe it's worth pointing out, Bill Ackman, when rates hit 5%, he covered his bond short. Now he's saying the market is, we may see rate cuts as soon as the Q1 next year.

Jim Cramer (2:25)

Right, I mean, my problem with that, obviously, is that what you need to see is six straight months of good numbers, that's what Powell wanted before he would even put that in the agenda, and he wanted to keep, you know, six straight rates, six straight months would make it so he wouldn't raise rates.

We don't know how much it would take for him to just keep rates flat. He does not like the autos being up, and he does not like the rents being up. He thinks that food should roll back. We do not want to underestimate his desire to have deflation, not declining rate of growth of inflation.

Jeff Marks (3:00)

Yeah, meanwhile, we still have a market off the initial highs of the morning, but still pushing higher in the face of an overbought S&P oscillator still.

Jim Cramer (3:10)

But we're seeing some of the, like a Microsoft roll over.

Jeff Marks (3:13)

There's rotation, money doesn't want to leave the market. It retrimmed meta just the other day. It's had a huge move, top name, second top name of the S&P.

Jim Cramer (3:22)

The next thing would be that the semiconductor is going crazy. Now we only, we've repositioned our semiconductor so we don't have like 20 different semiconductor companies, but Qualcomm at 130, I don't think sustainable. AMD's got a meeting December 4th. Remember, we're gonna be able to take profits after that. I want to stick with what we have. And I think that Broadcom, by the way, is the cheapest of the big growth semis.

Start your day with my outlook on the daily market every morning at 10, 20 a.m. Visit cnbc.com/morningtake to access all the benefits of being a CNBC Investing Club member.

SPEAKER_4 (3:58)

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