Cramer's Morning Take: Eli Lilly 8/7/25

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Jeff Marks (0:22)

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Jim Cramer (0:48)

Hey, it's Cramer, and this is my morning take on the market from today's CNBC Investing Club morning meeting.

Jeff Marks (0:53)

We sold 25 shares of Lilly last week, 775 was about a fifth of the position. That was after NOVO reported. It said some disturbing things about the GLP-1 market. The trade was a hedge against Lilly, saying disappointing things too. Ironically, Lilly's quarter was actually good. It was a beaten raise, Manjaro beat, SatBound beat their taking share in the obesity and type 2 diabetes market. However, and this was a big shock, the pill data for the oral GLP-1 disappointed. It was a longer readout. Weight loss not as much as we expected. Call it 12% for some 13 to 15 Discontinuation rates a little bit higher, although generally in line with other GLP-1s.

Jim Cramer (1:45)

This was not what we wanted.

Jeff Marks (1:46)

No, no. It's a disappointment.

Jim Cramer (1:49)

And then the ecom score not that great. And David, whom I do like very much, David Ricks, know very well, is sticking by a thesis which says, I don't know what the problem is. Why are you not like this? And our earnings were good. And David was a little tone deaf. And that hurt the stock. Because I think that the stock did go up from where it was, but ultimately, when you decide in any stock that things are good and Wall Street is bad, it doesn't work like that. You have to come back and say what Wall Street is doing wrong. And he didn't do that.

Jeff Marks (2:24)

Yeah, and look, the pill, it's still going to get, it should still get approved. You're talking about an early 2026 launch. It's still a big opportunity because, yes, maybe the weight loss isn't as great, or maybe, yes, discontinuation is a little bit high, but there's millions of people out there who prefer to take an oral medication versus an injectable. It's also much easier to manufacture because you don't have the bottlenecks of the injector pens. So there's still tons of pros.

Jim Cramer (2:53)

Right. Well, I hear you saying hold on to it.

Jeff Marks (2:58)

I don't know. I'm split because at the same time, look, and you had some analysts defend it. Wells Fargo said this is a buying opportunity. Citi said it's a buying opportunity.

Jim Cramer (3:05)

Well, it's a small position. If we want to blow it out, we can blow it out.

Jeff Marks (3:07)

But Learing downgraded it today. Three reasons why. They lower some out-year estimates because they lower their pill estimates. It's the worry that Nova Nordis could continue to use Price to compete. Lilly did say that the CVS formulary change could be some headwinds to growth. And then Novo says US employers not expanding access to anti-obesity medications. So I think there's reasons on both sides. I think it's going to take more work to do.

Jim Cramer (3:32)

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