Could Victoria shift right after 12 years of Labor?

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Sven Blumel (0:35)

You're listening to SBS News.

Jess Wilson (0:38)

Alright, everybody ready to get started?

Deborah Groch (0:41)

That's Labor's Ella George, the current state member for the seat of Lara, who has been campaigning with Premier Ben Carroll, head of the Victorian state election on November 28

She's one of many MPs from major and minor parties rallying for votes at events like this Labor appearance in a Melbourne hospital. I'm Ben.

Joel Sheppard (1:02)

Nice to meet you.

Jess Wilson (1:03)

It's Fiona.

Deborah Groch (1:03)

And this Liberal campaign video posted to their social media accounts.

Jess Wilson (1:08)

Toby, shall we change the government?

Joel Sheppard (1:09)

Please sort this out.

Jess Wilson (1:11)

It's my job. We're going to get there. I need your support, though.

Deborah Groch (1:13)

Labor's campaign goal is to achieve an historic fourth term, while the coalition simply wants to return to government. One Nation has been campaigning hard to expand on their success in key South Australian and West Australian by-elections, and shift Victoria from a traditionally progressive state, the one that is closer to the populist right. Polling suggests that the strongest concentration of winnable seats for challenges like One Nation are found across regional and rural areas, which means plenty of work for nationals MPs like Jade Benham, who holds the seat of Mildura in northwestern Victoria.

But she says Mildura has never automatically been a sure thing for the nationals.

Jade Benham (1:57)

People say, oh, it's a safe national seat. No, it's not. And it hasn't been for decades. It's changed hands from the liberals to independents to nationals, Labor even won it many decades ago, believe it or not.

You can never take any vote for granted.

Deborah Groch (2:14)

As One Nation targets regional areas and the outer suburbs of Melbourne, where they've also found support, the campaign has been dogged by controversy, like state president Warren Pickering, admitting he used drugs with his former partner during their relationship.

Warren Pickering (2:29)

Not unlike everybody else that has ever been a young man in their 20s. I made mistakes. We're talking about speed, amphetamines, ecstasy and marijuana.

Deborah Groch (2:40)

And there's been this pledge from North Metro lead candidate Mark Nicholson at the official campaign launch in Melbourne, which the ABC and SBS were banned from entering.

Jess Wilson (2:51)

And hence, I'm going to roll. If I ever go on a fight, Dan Andrews, just stick your mouth out, I'm going to be pressing your pressure.

Deborah Groch (3:01)

Yet One Nation are also highlighting health and law and order promises. Issues, they believe, will appeal to their traditional working class photo base and the regional and suburban seats they're targeting. The evidence certainly backs up the One Nation strategy with an SEC Newgate Special Victorian Mood of the Nation report in October confirming the top three issues for voters were the need to reduce crime, improve health care services, and provide cost of living relief. One Nation has created what it calls a regional health care guarantee, which promises to maintain minimum service baselines in major regional hospitals, core maternity services, and surgical capacity.

They say they also want to see more police, harsher penalties for violent offenders, and the rollback of what they argue are lenient sentencing guidelines, energy that opposition leader Jess Wilson has sought to match.

Jess Wilson (3:59)

Victorians have had enough. They've had enough of a government that is weak on crime, and now people are losing their lives. And I will stand with that community today and ensure that they feel supported.

Deborah Groch (4:08)

The Greens policies focus more on affordability issues and include the promise of cheaper groceries, rent controls, and free public transport and dental care. New Federal Greens leader David Shoebridge says they're taking a slightly different approach in Victoria than in previous campaigns, a strategy that seems to be appealing to voters.

David Shoebridge (4:28)

They're excited about the prospect of voting in people who instead of going in to deliver for their corporate paymasters, are actually going to go in and make the world better for them. So when Greens are going out in this Victorian election, saying, if you want cheaper groceries, government can make that happen.

Deborah Groch (4:45)