Closing Bell: Apple Launch Event, Anthropic Researcher Sounds Alarm 9/9/26

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Scott Wapner (1:01)

Thanks very much. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wapner, live from Post9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This Make or Break Hour begins the markets. Today's oil and yield-induced sell-off. Let's show you the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation today. As you can see, we're right across the board. We pretty much have been there for most of the day with stocks down. Brent moving over $100 a barrel. That's been a considerable story. Brent over $101, there's WTI, not that far behind.

And here's the story with yields, which actually spiked as the Treasury announced the size of its first bond buybacks. Maybe they're a bit smaller than the market was hoping for. We'll have more on that in just a moment. Elsewhere, Apple's iPhone event taking place today. Live report coming up there. The stock turning around. So we'll talk about what all of that means for shares moving forward. And how about Metashares? They're higher. The company rolling out its new AI agent, well received, to say the least, by the street. It does take us to our talk of the tape, whether stocks are on suddenly shaky ground or not. Let's ask our panel. CNBC contributor, Trivariate's Adam Parker, Barrett's Chris Ferrone. It's good to have both of you guys with us. Are we on shaky ground or not? No. No?

Why do you think the commentary is like, well, risk rewards worse, corporate buybacks, they're going to disappear. There's no earnings to save the day. Got oil up, yields up.

Isn't that shaking your ground or no?

Adam Parker (2:24)

I think there's this like, you know, historical.

Scott Wapner (2:29)

Well, I didn't even mention that.

Adam Parker (2:30)

Yeah, kind of September calendar thing that a lot of people mentioned. Yeah.

It isn't really statistically significant. We need a lot more years. And I think a big difference between this year and previous years is, in the history of forward estimates, which have existed since 1978, the MSRA was too optimistic in January, and on average their numbers had to come down a lot. And typically after Labor Day, people come back, they sharpen their pencils, and they realize, oh no, my numbers are way too high, and they have to cut them. This year, really the last couple of years, but all year the numbers keep coming up. And as you know, there's a ton of bulge bracket firm conferences in every sector. Right now, you know, it's Goldman Tech, and Citi, and Morgan Stanley Industrial, it's all over. And I just don't think you're going to see down revisions to the earnings like you've seen in some of the previous years.

Scott Wapner (3:15)

That's all that matters right now, despite the fact that this is like Scott Wapner of Citadel Securities, who's very well respected. I know you have, I'm sure you have a great amount of respect for him. The highs are in for the month.

Mid-month really starts the seasonal weakness. Blackout window starts on the 12th, options expiry on the 18th, quarter end on the 30th. These are all historically very large risk transfer events. How would you respond to that? Now again, at short term, he's talking more tactical, he's talking about the month of September, not a change in the trend of the market.

Adam Parker (3:45)

Yeah, so look, I'm not very good, I don't have any skill making those calls. You know, those things you mentioned, you have quarters end, every quarter, you have options expiry around that same day, every month. I think some months it's good, some months it's bad. I'm sure the guys at Gazillion Air are making that call right more than I would be, so I don't really have any two week disagreement in that call, and I'm sure Citadel's got the talent to monetize that more than I do.