China's Nov. 27 Deadline: America's Next Supply Shock? | Rodney Stevens

SPEAKER_1 (0:01)

When fall comes back around, there's a sense of a reset. And new pieces from Lululemon's Fall Drop are an inspiration to push your goals and elevate your routines. As your calendar fills, easy-to-layer styles meet the demands of your day. And as you challenge yourself to try even more, versatile sets transition with you. The Lululemon Fall lineup brings new levels of comfort and confidence, whether you're starting something fresh or starting something over. Check out the latest arrivals in store and on lululemon.com now.

David Lin (0:30)

November 27th could be a critical deadline for America's defense sector. That's when China's temporary suspension of its antimony export ban to the US expires. Antimony is essential for ammunition, military equipment, and a range of industrial applications. And yet America relies on imports for 91% of its supply, leaving a critical vulnerability in its defense supply chain. With antimony, prices have more than doubled since last year, and could renewed Chinese restrictions trigger yet another supply shock. Joining me now is Rodney Stevens, CEO of NSJ Antimony, a project that along with others like it could soon be critical to national security.

Welcome to the show, Rodney. Good to see you. This video is disseminated on behalf of NSJ Antimony.

Rodney Stevens (1:18)

Thanks, David. Hi. Good to be here.

SPEAKER_4 (1:20)

Whenever fall comes back around, it always feels like a fresh start. This year, I've been layering in some styles from the new Lululemon fall drop because the weather is shifting and I find I have to be ready for the entire day and not just one part of it.

Lululemon's fall line has some really versatile transitional pieces. So I can just wake up, throw on a matching set, add a jacket or a fleece and head out, knowing that I'll feel comfortable enough to go wherever the day takes me. Check out the new fall arrivals in store and online now at lululemon.com.

Rodney Stevens (1:50)

On your show.

David Lin (1:51)

Good to have you. What is antimony and why is it so critical?

Rodney Stevens (1:55)

Well, it's a critical mineral. It's a critical metal. The main use is obviously military use. It's primarily for flame retardant, which is hence used for military purposes, but it's also growing. There's growing demand in the provolactic space as well with solar. So it's not uniquely a military metal, but there's growing demand for other uses as well.

It has relatively been not so well known because we've been in a kind of a bear market for a number of years due to, well, China's already usually had sufficient reasonable supply, but as supplies dwindled, we went into a crunch where there's been no investment in the sector for a number of years.

And then China came to the realization and turned off the taps on its exports to maintain what it had on its own and gave the world a shock. We need this antimony.

David Lin (3:04)

And according to the USGS, approximately 40% of US antimony usage is associated with lead and ammunition, while the other 49% goes toward metal products, including flame retardants, like you mentioned. Which area do you think has the strongest growth potential?

Rodney Stevens (3:24)

Well, I mean, it's growing in solar use, but I still think the dominant demand is going to be for military use. You know, there's geopolitical tensions sort of been strengthening around the world, and armies around the world are seeing that they need this for their supplies. So it's become a critical metal, and they'll need more. And the demand for military use will probably increase as well.

And what's unique about this metal, as it's used in bombs and flame retardants, that once you send it out, it doesn't come back. So there's not much recycling of it, like compared to other metals in the copper space or zinc, where there's a lot of recycling supply, but there's very little in the antimony because it disappears.

David Lin (4:19)

The antimony market currently faces a November 27th export control deadline from China.

So, why was there an export restriction to begin with? And what happens after this deadline? Let's talk about this.

Rodney Stevens (4:35)

So, the export restriction was put on by China in 2024

They've underutilized smelters, and mining supplies are dwindling in their country. So, naturally, you want to fill your hungry smelters. And, you know, for strategic reasons, they decided to put the brakes on on their exports, because they needed it, you know, they're needed all internally. And even then, they don't have enough supply for their own needs. So, by putting on the brakes, I mean, all over the world now is facing about a 30,000 ton per year shortfall of antimony ex-China. So, that's a huge gap to fill.