Cash test: can Europe support Ukraine alone?

Rosie Blau (0:10)

Hello and welcome to The Intelligence. From The Economist, I'm Rosie Blau.

Jason Palmer (0:14)

And I'm Jason Palmer.

Rosie Blau (0:19)

Today on the show, private science institutions thrive in Trump's America, and European museums see a spike in art theft. But first...

Jason Palmer (0:46)

Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration's Uber envoy, landed in St. Petersburg this morning on his way to meet Russia's president Vladimir Putin. He'd come from Oslo, where yesterday he met with president Volodymyr Zelensky and worked up yet another proposal to end the war in Ukraine. Will it work this time? Experience doesn't inspire a lot of hope. And what if it doesn't? America has struck a deal to buy Russian diesel, knocked back new sanctions on the country, allegedly pinched off intelligence to Ukraine.

One adjective you might use to describe President Trump is transactional.

SPEAKER_3 (1:22)

We've given a lot to Ukraine. We've got absolutely nothing back except grief, death, tremendous monetary loss.

Jason Palmer (1:32)

The Ukrainians hardly need a lesson on grief and death and loss. And Mr. Trump's casting of aid as a deal from which he's yet to profit is telling.

SPEAKER_3 (1:42)

The United States has spent a fortune, Europe has spent a fortune, Europe's tired of it right now. They're tired of it right now.

Jason Palmer (1:49)

Europe doesn't yet seem as tired of it as Mr. Trump himself is. But the continent's ability to keep up the fight does have its limits.

Anton La Guardia (1:59)

The Europeans are increasingly alone in supporting Ukraine.

Jason Palmer (2:05)

Anton La Guardia is our diplomatic editor.

Anton La Guardia (2:08)

They have real problems, they can't match all the capabilities the Americans provide and they're increasingly under pressure at home because of their deteriorating fiscal position and now growing protests on the streets.

Jason Palmer (2:23)

Well, let's wind back a bit and talk about how things had been between America and Europe on the Ukraine question before all of this.

Anton La Guardia (2:32)

There have been lots of ups and downs. And every time that Donald Trump seemed to lean towards Russia, the Europeans would rush over and try and bring him back. They were very proud in June of having got Donald Trump to sign up to the G7 statement pledging to strengthen sanctions, including on oil and gas.

But Donald Trump has changed his mind again and has gone quite a long way towards embracing the Kremlin.

Jason Palmer (3:00)

And in your mind, is this all still strongly tied to the midterm elections and what Mr. Trump thinks he can do to put his thumb on the scales there?

Anton La Guardia (3:08)

That's the assumption of what's happening. But he does have a longstanding admiration for Vladimir Putin. Remember that red carpet he rolled out for the Russian president in Anchorage last year. So the Europeans hope this is a passing phase, they just have to grit their teeth for a bit and then things might revert to something more normal. But there is a real danger if Donald Trump loses both houses of Congress and is humiliated, he may lash out even more, especially against countries that he thinks have frustrated his plans to lower fuel prices.

He is a very vindictive guy who bears grudges and likes to project away from himself any blame.

Jason Palmer (3:49)

And what's your read on the dynamic between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelenksy now on that vindictive point? It does seem that Mr. Zelenksy this time around doesn't seem to be capitulating as much, it seems a little worked up, as I were.

Anton La Guardia (4:02)

Well, he never capitulated, but he has, since that bust up in the White House, has been very careful to adopt Trumpian language and try and turn it into his perspective. So he'll say, yes, of course, we want a peace agreement now, and we're doing everything we can, but the Russians just aren't playing ball with your ceasefire plans.

He's not doing that this time quite as much. He has come out and said Donald Trump's deal with Russia on diesel is weak, that he feels betrayed and has called the Europeans the real leaders in the world, at least as far as he's concerned. So he's no longer pulling his punches quite the same way with Donald Trump. And the question is, and I don't think it's been answered yet, whether this is simply him responding to domestic pressure or him thinking that he can somehow help to turn Congress against Donald Trump. We've certainly seen more bipartisan condemnation of Donald Trump's position in recent days in Congress.

Jason Palmer (5:05)

And coming back to the question of Europe being among the last standing in wholeheartedly supporting Ukraine, what are the capabilities? How likely is it that Europe could fill the void?