Carney vs. Trump and Alastair’s Advice for Burnham’s First PMQs

**Rory Stewart** (0:00)
Donald Trump is back to talking about Canada as the 51st state. And the striking thing is, this no longer looks like a joke. Look at what killed the talks between the US and Canada this weekend. It wasn't really about tariffs. It was about Trump demanding control over Canada's external trade policy, whether or not they could use French labeling on packaging. These aren't trade asks. You basically can't concede these things and still be a country. And we're beginning to see a pattern. Panama, Canada, Greenland, the Don Roe Doctrine. So these are demands that are not good for America, but they are catastrophic for Canada.
And this is what worries me about Trump. I don't think he's erratic. I think there's a consistent theme here of trying to subjugate everybody in his neighborhood. And the question for us is, what are we going to do about it? Here is a golden opportunity for the UK and Europe to reach out to one of the wealthiest, most stable countries in the world, one of our most natural allies. The question is, will we?
Welcome to The Rest Is Politics, Question Time with me, Rory Stewart.

**Alastair Campbell** (1:12)
And me, Alastair Campbell. And Rory, you ended the main episode by saying that some of the things we're going to discuss in this episode relate to things we discussed then, not least the way that powers relate to each other, impunity, rules-based laws, et cetera. So, Canada, US., Gloria, very straightforward question. What's your take on the U.S.-Canada trade war? Jay, how much has Mark Carney's popularity benefited from Trump's trade war? Where do you want to start with U.S.-Canada?

**Rory Stewart** (1:40)
This is something that if you weren't paying much attention, you might think was a story that had faded. So, you remember, Trump comes in, second Trump presidency, and he's talking about making Canada the 51st state, and he's referring to the Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau as the governor. And then there are these absolutely stinging tariffs imposed on Canada, and then it fades away. Fades away a little bit because the Supreme Court moved against those tariffs. The world's attention shifted onto other areas.
And you would be forgiven for thinking, well, maybe, you know, the U.S.-Canada thing was a bit of a blip, and the whole thing's been patched up. Absolutely not. It turns out, and this is why I get very frustrated with the mooch going on about Trump always chickens out. I think that's a very dangerous reading of Trump.
It's tempting to think, okay, the guy has an idea. You know, he's gonna build a wall, but he doesn't build a wall. Or he says he believes in Isis Asians, he's gonna follow through. Or he says he's gonna keep the wall rolling in Iran, but he's not going to, and he's not, he's gonna give up on his tariffs against Canada. That's not my reading of him at all. My reading of him is he's surprisingly consistent on Putin, on Ukraine, on tariffs, on immigration. And at the core of this is the fact that he is doing something which is unbelievable to the Canadian economy. So the Canadian economy at about the time that Trump comes in was exporting 76% of all its exports goes to the United States. More than 60% of its imports comes from the United States, two and a half million Canadian jobs are directly dependent on the US trade, about over a trillion dollars, 16% of the entire Canadian economy. So Trump is in a position where if he really follows through on this, he can do permanent, really permanent significant damage to the Canadian economy.
And Carney is treading a very difficult line. He does not obviously want to bankrupt his country, but equally quite understandably, he both personally believes that he's not going to put up with being bullied by the US in this way. And he's also got a Canadian people who are completely disgusted and outraged. I think the latest figures suggest something like only 9% of Canadians now trust the United States. And the question at the back, Vince, what I want to maybe start you on is what is Trump doing? Because I don't think this is about the money. I don't think this is some remotely technocratic calculation. It obviously damages the US economy as well as the Canadian economy. The integration of their car industry, Ontario into Detroit, is absolute. I mean, these vehicles are crossing the borders again and again for every bit of engine and parts. I think he's still, if not quite saying, I want to make Canada the 51st state, he wants to make it a subject state. And the clues to that are what is he actually asking for in the tariff deal? He's effectively saying, you're going to be forcibly brought into a sort of single market customs union over which you have no say. You will have to change the way that you label your products. You're not going to be able to do independent trade deals with other countries, etc. Over to you.