Can Ukraine Win in Russia?

**SPEAKER_1** (0:01)
The FIFA World Cup is here, and you can now feel the thrill of the pitch in FIFA World Cup Launch Edition on Netflix, a fast and fluid football game where your phone is the controller and the TV is the stadium. Play for your country in 16 different stadiums with up to four friends, all included in your membership. Scroll to the Games tab on your TV and play FIFA World Cup Launch Edition now only on Netflix.

**Ravi Agrawal** (0:28)
Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.
There's a growing narrative that Ukraine has put Russia on the back foot in the full scale war that began in 2022 Kiev has figured out how to send attack drones deep into Russian territory, bringing the war home to the Russian people in a way that simply wasn't the case before. But does that mean we might be closer to a resolution to the war? Or will Moscow fight on to the bloody end regardless? My guest this week is Ukraine's former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. He was Kiev's top diplomat for four years, including the first two years of the war. Out of office now, he has a frank and realistic assessment to share.
That's coming up. But first, we also had the NATO Summit in Turkey this week, which was attended by US President Donald Trump, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, and all of the top European leaders. Here's my read on what went down. As always, Trump took up a lot of attention. He once again mentioned he wanted to acquire Greenland, which is of course part of Denmark, and he said he would cut off trade with Spain, which has been critical of the Trump White House. But beyond all that noise, FP's reporters on the ground in Ankara this week say that the Greenland issue actually did not come up in the closed-door meetings. And the news that Trump agreed to give Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot intercept missiles was widely seen as a positive development. Positive not just because it will help Ukraine in the area it is most vulnerable, air defense, but also because it suggests that Trump might be coming round to supporting Kiev. The theory goes that Trump only likes to support winners. And if he buys the narrative that Ukraine is doing better than before in the war, then he's going to get on board.
Personally, I think it's a tenuous theory. The momentum in the war has shifted back and forth between Ukraine and Russia several times now, and will likely continue to do so for a while. And beyond that, the consistent trend with Trump is the inconsistency. He will pick what he thinks makes sense in a current moment. And that could change.
The backdrop to all of this is, of course, Iran. While in Turkey this week, Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran was, quote, over. This came after Iran attacked ships following an Omani-approved route through the Strait of Hormuz, and then the US struck Iran, and then Iran struck a range of US bases and other targets in the region. Immediately, oil prices spiked. As I read this on Thursday, the 9th of July, this could still go a number of ways. The White House and Iran could escalate, going back to a period of all-out war, or they could go back to the drawing board and plug some of the holes in the MOU. Chief among them is the clause that says Iran will pledge to ensure safe passage for ships. The White House interpreted this as Iran opening things up the way they were before. The Iran seems to be interpreting it as control of the straight. So for now, we're back to that murky area where we're not quite at war, but we're not exactly at a ceasefire. This is once again a test of wills to see which of Iran or the United States can endure more pain and for how long. And the entire global economy is once again held hostage.
Okay, we will come back to Iran another day. Time now for this week's featured interview. What did Ukraine get out of the NATO summit? And beyond that, how should we read the state of the war with Russia? Has momentum really shifted to Kiev?
My guest is Dmytro Kuleba, the former Foreign Minister of Ukraine. As I mentioned, he was in office when Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022 Kuleba left government in 2024 He is now a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center. Let's dive in.
Mr. Kuleba, welcome to FP Live.

**Dmytro Kuleba** (5:03)
It's good to be back.

**Ravi Agrawal** (5:05)
Let's start with one item of news coming out of the NATO Summit. Trump announced that Ukraine will be able to produce Patriot interceptor missiles. He's going to give them a license to do so.