Can Poilievre close the gap with Carney?

**Sean Speer** (0:00)
Are federal politics tightening in Canada, or is the gap between the liberals and the conservatives growing? That's one of the questions we'll aim to cover on today's episode of Hub Politics. As always, I'm grateful to be joined by David Coletto, the founder and chair of Abacus Data, and Amanda Galbraith, the co-founder and principal at Oyster Group. David and Amanda, thanks for joining me.

**David Coletto** (0:21)
Great to see you both.

**Amanda Galbraith** (0:22)
Hey Sean, hey Dan.

**Sean Speer** (0:24)
Guys, one of the reasons I like this so much is this would be the conversation three of us would probably be having where there are no cameras on. We've known each other for a long time, we're interested in politics and policy and ideas.
Although there's seemingly not as much happening this week as there has been in the world wind of the past year, I thought we would take the opportunity just to have a catch up on federal politics and maybe federal provincial relations on the back half of the show. David, I want to come to you first to situate where you think we stand today when it comes to the federal political scene. You had a poll out that, if I interpret correctly, shows the gap between the liberals and the conservatives shrinking a bit. Is this a reason for conservatives to be a bit less pessimistic than they have been for the past several months?

**David Coletto** (1:21)
Well, I think not to throw too much shade, but anything is going to give them hope, I think we would. Look, I think there's evidence that the bigger liberal lead that we had seen earlier this year, post Davos and over the spring, has come down. But I wouldn't say that Mark Carney finds himself in any less of an advantageous position, and therefore, the conservatives in a disadvantageous one, right? The prime minister personally is liked by more people than disliked in every province across the country.
In some places like Quebec, clear majorities have a favorable view of him.
Now, Mr. Poilievre doesn't find himself in a weaker position than he's been in personally. In terms of how people feel, the proportion of people who say positive, negative, is about where it's been for the whole year, and it's still relatively good when you compare him to how Aaron O'Toole was doing or Andrew Scheer was doing or even he was doing, prior to sort of Carney's emergence onto the political scene. So the way I view the political, a few things have changed. Trump is back on more people's agenda after the 50 percent tariffs issue rose, climate change has risen a little bit, but it hasn't reoriented the fundamentals, I think, of the political system, which is if you are over the age of 50, you are much more inclined to look at the liberals and say, I like what I see, I like the prime minister, I want him to protect what I've got, I feel he's the best person to deal with Trump, and that remains the most animating issue for them. If you are under 45, if you live in parts of the country where you aren't as concerned about Trump, yeah, cost of living, health care, housing remain important issues, and you're more open to looking at alternatives. But fundamentally, guys, I don't think the state of play has fundamentally changed. I don't see a 19-point lead for the liberals, but I do see an environment in which Mark Carney is darn difficult to compete against because he is performing exceptionally well for somebody who is now what, in 16th, 17th month of his mandate, and is doing better than Trudeau did at the same point. This is still technically a government that is in its fourth term, even if it's being perceived still largely by many people as in its first. And so, yeah, I think there's hopeful notes for conservatives, but it's not fundamentally about them. I think it's important, and that's how I read it. This is fundamentally about a political leader who leads a political party who right now is seen as still the best person to handle the world that we've been handed.

**Sean Speer** (4:07)
It's like the Seinfeld line. It's not you, it's me. Amanda, I'll come to you in a minute to share some analysis from what David just said. But David, if I can come back to you for a minute, because it's sort of become a political axiom in Canada that a higher level of support for the New Democrats necessarily benefits the conservatives. But if I understand your poll and a few others that we've seen in recent weeks, the New Democrats have inched up a bit from where they were in the April 2025 election. I think polls like yours have them somewhere around 12% or 13%. And of course, they fare much worse than that, closer to 6% or 7% in the 2025 election. And yet, that isn't helping the conservatives as much as one might expect. Help us understand that. Is it a case, David, of some of those Carney NDP voters maybe going home?