Can MAHA Keep Iowa Red?

Peter Hamby (0:05)

Welcome, everybody, to The Making of a President. I'm Peter Hamby. My guest today is Iowa GOP. Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, one of the most influential players in Republican presidential politics. Yes, the Democrats ditched Iowa as the first in the nation caucus state, but Republicans did not. And the candidates running to succeed Donald Trump in 2028, JD. Vance, Ted Cruz, maybe Marco Rubio, maybe Pete Hegseth, will be kicking off their campaigns in the Hawkeye state very soon.

In a candid conversation about how to win Iowa, Jeff tells me that Donald Trump still has a chokehold on Republican voters, even as his approval ratings tumble. And it will be very hard for any candidate to win Iowa and the Republican nomination if they criticize the president.

Jeff also reveals something important. MAHA voters, the people who want to make America healthy again, are becoming more and more influential in Iowa politics. And Jeff tells me how Republican presidential candidates can win those caucus goers over. Let's get into it.

Welcome, everybody, to the making of a president. Today's guest, the chairman, the esteemed chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, Jeff Kaufmann, who has a very rare distinction. He's been a party chair in a state for I think, Jeff, longer than all but one party chairman, chairwoman in the country. So you have been around, I think since 2014 and have seen the Republican Party change under Donald Trump. I feel like it continues to change as we speak. I'll ask you about that. But first, I got to ask you, since you're here about the midterms, it doesn't feel like things are going great for the Republican Party. In Iowa, you've got a governor's race, where it looks like in all polls, you're trailing. I think Democrats might be overestimating a little bit, their lead in the Senate race, but Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson has tried to distance herself a little bit from Donald Trump. I'm just curious what the vibes are there because gas prices are up, diesel prices are up. Donald Trump's disapproval rating is pretty damn high right now. It's high among independents, it's high among non-college whites, it's high among small town voters. According to at least this Marist poll that came out a few days ago. So give me an honest temperature check on the midterms in Iowa right now.

Jeff Kaufmann (2:26)

Well, and I mean, it feels, it has felt, and it still continues to feel like a general election. I mean, I hear, I feel that in terms of urgency, the passion of the message.

I hope that is reflected in turnout as well, of course, you know, in a situation where we have 180,000 plus added registration. That's our secret sauce, quite frankly. But yes, Peter, I mean, there's no doubt about it. Historically, we knew that we were, that we're swimming upstream in this. There's only just a couple of exceptions, and like the last half century, where the president's party has not, has done better than expected. So we knew this, we knew this was coming.

We did not rest on our laurels, that we've got, you know, we're pushing 200,000 additional registrants, because obviously the number two registration behind Republicans in this state is independents, and then comes the Democrats. You know, I do think you bring up something that we're not counting on, but certainly is a factor, and that is CNN, I believe, actually, reported that Iowa is number one in terms of underestimating the Republican vote. There's various theories for that. Some of it's that Trump voters just don't like to tell pollsters what's going on. There also might be that hit the sport. In general, I think that, you know, we've also got that perfect storm. You talk about swimming upstream. We got the mid-term, not only do we have the historic mid-term trends, we also have a situation, we have two open seats, high-profile open seats, and we've got two Democrats in this state, quite frankly, that are running on Republican talking points. I mean, it's the ultimate spin of all spins.

Peter Hamby (4:24)

Tell me what that means, though, because I've interviewed both Rob Sand and Josh Durk, the cycle, the Democrats running for Gov. and Senate, and they don't want Kamala Harris to campaign in Iowa. They don't think that transgender girls and women should play in men's and boys sports. They say that they don't accept the party label. They're not tribal.

It sounds like you see through that. You think they're lying?

Jeff Kaufmann (4:45)

Well, yeah, I mean, I think we probably crossed the barrier to spin, which we all have that are in this business, to deceit. Of course, we got Josh Turek, honestly, somebody just showed me this morning. He actually sent out a mailer that said he's going to protect the border, even though he either missed votes or voted against giving taxpayer-funded benefits to illegal immigrants, and actually came out and said he would work with Donald Trump. I mean, if that is true, if there's anybody that believes that, that a potential Democratic senator is going to work with Donald Trump on closing the border, I definitely have oceanfront property here in Iowa to sell that person. And then, as far as Rob Sanders, before the political born-again experience, when he described himself as a liberal immigrant, when he actually said he favored men in women's work, and then we've got the post-born-again experience. And that's the Rob Sanders, I think that is, I think that's after just, I'm sure it's a coincidence, but that's after his billionaire in-laws started funneling tens of millions into his campaign. So, yeah, I mean, there is, and he did a good job of scrubbing all his social media. I will hand him that, whoever he's hiring to do that, did a great job. We captured quite a bit of that before. But I mean, this is a Republican message they're running on. And really, for me, this boils down to two things here with the last five weeks, turnout and are people gonna see through these born-again experiences?