Can Europe Defend Itself Without America? Radek Sikorski on NATO & Ukraine

**Radosław Sikorski** (0:00)
I don't think Russia could prosecute the war, and I don't think she could survive as a state without trade with China. So this would be a credible threat. So China, unlike us, actually could force Russia to end the war.
But my guess is that the war suits China just fine. Russia is selling them gold. Russia with every year becomes more dependent. And what's not to like about that?

**Jake Sullivan** (0:34)
Welcome back to The Long Game. I'm Jake Sullivan.

**Jon Finer** (0:37)
And I'm Jon Finer. We've spent a lot of time on this podcast discussing the state of America's relations with various countries around the world, especially our allies.
But today we have our first opportunity to do that with someone who is sitting at the table managing those relationships from across the Atlantic. Radosław Sikorski, who goes by Radek, is Poland's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. He's been in and out of Polish politics for a long time, with previous stints as Foreign Minister and as Defense Minister. He is also a long time advocate for the transatlantic relationship, so much so, in fact, that he married into one. His wife is the acclaimed American journalist and historian Anne Applebaum.
He is the author of seven books on international affairs himself. And of particular interest to me, he began his career as a war correspondent during the Soviet War in Afghanistan and later in Angola. No one has a keener eye when it comes to NATO, to European security, to great power competition and the transatlantic relationship. And we're very much looking forward to this conversation. So, Radosław Sikorski, welcome to The Long Game.

**Radosław Sikorski** (1:38)
Hello, and thank you for the generous introduction.

**Jake Sullivan** (1:41)
We really appreciate you taking the time today because I think our listeners getting your perspective will be really enriching. So, let's get right into it.
Europe is simultaneously facing a Russian invasion that has produced the bloodiest conflict on the continent since the Second World War, Chinese industrial overcapacity that threatens to hollow out the manufacturing sector across Europe, and a US administration that seems to put it charitably less than fully interested in working with their European allies and sometimes downright hostile, though usually not to Poland. Since the end of the Cold War, Radek, has there been a more challenging time for Europe? How do you see the picture today?

**Radosław Sikorski** (2:20)
It is challenging, but give us credit for not starting wars of choice that we can't win. Credit given.

**Jon Finer** (2:32)
We do.

**Radosław Sikorski** (2:33)
Of course, I was speaking about the Russians.

**Jake Sullivan** (2:35)
Right. Right, of course.

**Radosław Sikorski** (2:37)
We are doing something about unfair Chinese practices. We've just introduced, partly inspired, I have to say, by the United States, a charge on small postal packages that were pouring in at the rate of 13 million per day.
And since the 1st of July, the volume has decreased because of the EU charge at our customs barrier.
Look, we in Central and Eastern Europe knew that the window of history in which Russia was cooperative wouldn't last forever. And we have been spending 2% of GDP on defense since 20 years ago, at a time when 2% seemed like a lot. We're now spending 4.8% on defense, on hard defense, and 7% if you count dual-use stuff. And we are re-industrializing in the area of defense from our national budget and also from EU funds. The EU has passed safe mechanism, soft loans, 150 billion euros in total almost, of which Poland is getting about a third. So yes, there are many challenges, but I wouldn't count Europe out. We are still a very big single market. We are a confederation. We don't have the unity of command that you have in the United States. We are slower. It takes time for us to synchronize, but it also means we can't do anything rash. And that of course has its advantages too.

**Jake Sullivan** (4:23)
It surely does. So I am interested in the optimism, the tempered but real optimism in your answer, and wanted to just zoom out for a minute to something that you wrote last year. You wrote about being asked what keeps you up at night. And you said the answer, and this is a quote, is the fear that the post-war international order, shaped by memories of World War II and the trauma of the Holocaust, and built on the foundation of political compromise, respect for other countries, sovereignty, free markets, civil liberties, and the protection of minorities may collapse.
How do you assess the state of the international order today? What's your diagnosis? And then what's your prescription for what collectively those of us who want to stand for the principles that you wrote about, what we should be doing?