Can Development Work in Wartime?

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Ravi Agrawal (1:19)

Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.

So, we know that poverty and a lack of infrastructure are real problems in many parts of the world. And the challenge is that even as you try to improve conditions, there are active conflicts that are making everything worse. More forced migration, more inflation, fewer aid dollars. So what does the world do?

My guest this week is a former Prime Minister who runs UNDP, the UN's Development Program, tasked with helping to eliminate poverty and accelerate sustainable growth. I know it's a big task, but he has a remarkably can-do approach, and I think you'll enjoy hearing his take. That is coming up, but first, I'm watching with great concern what seems to be the outbreak of one more war, and it's really not getting much attention. I'm talking about Ethiopia. Here's my read on things. Seven armed groups in Ethiopia have formed an alliance to oust Prime Minister Abe Ahmed, and the political dispute has now turned violent with deadly clashes breaking out in the northern region of Tigray. As of this recording on Thursday, October 1st, it seems to be a fast moving situation. In recent days, the National Army recaptured the strategically important town of Alamata after it fell to rebel forces earlier. I know there are so many bad things happening around the world and it is hard to keep track, but Ethiopia really could spiral out of control. It was only in 2022 that a peace treaty ended a devastating two-year war in Tigray in which hundreds of thousands of people were killed. Hundreds of thousands of people. If this war escalates, it will be bad enough internally, but it could also draw in other actors. Neighboring Eritrea, which is not on good terms with Abbe's government. There is Egypt and Sudan, whom Ethiopia's army chief accuses of supporting the rebel alliance. And then there's even the United States, which recently ended an arms embargo on Ethiopia. All of this as a brutal El Nino affects crop production, which could now be a harbinger for a broader humanitarian crisis.

Look, I know all of this is a lot to keep track of. I'm going to share some related reading if you want to learn more in the show notes. But this reminded me of something I learned last week when I guest hosted an episode of The World's Toughest Job, an FP podcast in partnership with the UN Foundation, that looks at what the next UN Secretary General should focus on. One strand of thinking put forward by Thant Mint U, a historian and the grandson of Yutant, who ran the UN in the 1960s, is that the next Secretary General should really just focus on conflict resolution, delegate almost everything else.

Comfort Ero, who was also on that show with me, went a step further and made the case that this person, the next Secretary General, should put all their energy specifically into solving one conflict, the Sudan conflict. And the reason they make this case is that if the next Secretary General, who will start in January, can just show that the UN can actually still make a difference, and can reverse this global trend of impunity in wars, a lot of other good steps could follow in a lot of other arenas.

Regular listeners will know I'm looking for reasons to stay positive about the world, so I quite like this proposal. I'm going to link to that conversation in the show notes as well.

Okay, time for this week's interview. And it is the last of our spate of episodes focusing on the UN. We've had the World Bank's Ajay Banga on job creation, Maria Ressa on the UN scientific panel on AI, and Mike Waltz, Trump's UN ambassador. Now, finally, Alexander De Croo, the administrator of UNDP. De Croo was previously the Prime Minister of Belgium. When I last saw him, he was making the case for more defense dollars. Now he's arguing for development dollars. But he has an interesting premise. Instead of just fixing things that are going to break once again in a conflict, he is focused on building longer-term resilience, whether it's in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Gaza, or Haiti. And he has some fascinating examples, including convincing Afghan farmers to stop growing poppy. A lot of these issues can feel so downbeat. De Croo is focused on solutions. It's worth airing them out. Let's dive in.