BTC Q4 Outlook, ETF Flows, Commodities Supercycle | BMTV Sep. 29, 2026

Grace Remington (0:05)

Happy Tuesday morning and welcome into BMTV. I'm Grace Remington with Sean Hagan. Well, oil is high, yields are high, and yet Bitcoin continues to show surprising resilience. We're breaking down what's driving the markets this morning, and here's who we're doing it with. David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital. Ali Tager, VP of External Affairs at the National Cryptocurrency Association. Himanshu Sahe, the Co-Founder and CRO of ARCH. Dan Tapiero, Founder and CEO of 50T Funds. Ryan Rasmussen, the Director and Head of Research at Bitwise. And Tracy Shuchart, Senior Economist at Ninja Trader Live. So once again, Sean, we are in for a full house today.

Sean Hagan (0:44)

Yeah, this might be the most guests we've ever had on one show.

Grace Remington (0:46)

It's going to be a good one. Plus, we're looking at Bitcoin against gold options positioning and the latest moves from treasury companies. But first, let's get started with the headlines. US-bought Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded eight consecutive days of net inflows with more than $3 billion flowing into the funds since September 17th. Inflows peaked at nearly $1 billion on September 21st before easing to $31 million on September 28th. Anthropic is warning potential investors that advanced AI could pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity in its IPO filing. The company says its models could potentially exhibit self-preserving behaviors, including resisting shutdown, concealing information or even behavior resembling blackmail. Democrats could target Trump-linked crypto companies for congressional investigations if the party wins control of the House or Senate in November. Reuters reports that Trump family business deals and Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 capital are also high on the list of potential targets, with a majority in either chamber giving Democrats subpoena power and funding for expanded investigations.

Morgan Stanley has launched a digital asset lab to test how stablecoins, tokenization and DeFi could be used across the bank's business. The lab gives employees a controlled environment to experiment with blockchain technology without putting the bank's core systems at risk. Belarus has registered its first two crypto banks as residents of the country's high-tech park, marking a new step in the government's push to bring crypto and traditional finance together. The two firms will now undergo accreditation with the national bank, with regulators saying the framework could expand financial services and attract investment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has rallied almost 41% so far this third quarter, putting Bitcoin on track for its best Q3 in a decade and fourth best ever. Only three times in Bitcoin's history has the asset posted a stronger third quarter return, with gains just over 87% in 2012, almost 80% in 2017, and nearly 50% in 2013

And with that, let's take a look at how the markets are moving today. Bitcoin down 1.8%, sitting at 84,079.

Gold up about 20 bucks today, up 0.15%. Let's take a look at the yields. Obviously, all eyes are on those. Tenure up a basis point at 5.24, the 30 yield, sitting at 5.56. And oil, the WTI crude, at 93.08, down a basis point on the day. Sean, anything standing out to you so far?

Sean Hagan (3:28)

Yeah, look, the IPO filing from Anthropix is really interesting. They're asking the market to value an $8 billion a year loss at $2 trillion potential valuation, amidst saying that this technology might kill you. So that's a very interesting IPO strategy that sticks out to me.

Grace Remington (3:48)

Interesting, to say the least. Well, those are the numbers on the screen for what's happening underneath them. Let's bring in our first guest of the day, David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital. Good morning, David. How are you?

David Lawant (4:00)

Good morning, Grace and Sean. Great to be here. Thanks for having me.

Grace Remington (4:03)

Yes, thank you.

Well, Bitcoin Futures' open interest is back above 50 billion for the first time this year. What does that tell us? And do you think that's a healthy leverage or a warning sign?

David Lawant (4:15)

Yeah, that's a great question. And I believe the best way to think about this number is as a high level proxy of how much demand for leverage is there. So maybe you can say a little bit about how animal spirits are looking like in the more leveraged corners of crypto or Bitcoin.

$50 billion is a relatively high number. So just to give you a sense, the highest this number has ever been was just short of $60 billion. So we're not too far from the top there. But this is something that happens very commonly whenever we see Bitcoin getting repriced very quickly. As you showed in the headlines, Bitcoin had one of its best quarters ever. And whenever you see this volatility concentrated in a short period of time, there's a lot of activity that happens on the future side, whether that is happening on what we call the basis trade, right? So some folks just buying Bitcoin spot and selling the future, all the way to folks playing leverage outright. So the way I'm looking at this now is that this recovery of leverage is more a sign of vitality in the market than not something that worries me too much.