Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 8th, 2026

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

Jonathan Ferro (0:11)

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Annmarie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 AM Eastern.

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Stocks mixed as yields push higher. Barbara Reinhard of Voya writing, if current bond yields posed a serious threat to economic growth and corporate profits, equities should be screaming danger. They are. Barbara joins us now for more. Barbara, good morning.

Barbara Reinhard (0:49)

Good morning.

Jonathan Ferro (0:49)

How bullish are you into your end?

Barbara Reinhard (0:51)

Look, you're only one person off the August 13th highs for the S&P 500 You've got very solid earnings growth. You don't have PE multiple expansion. The economy is not falling into recession. There's reasons to stay bullish on equities.

Jonathan Ferro (1:05)

What kind of earnings growth do you need to put up in the next few quarters to keep that for you?

Barbara Reinhard (1:09)

Yeah, look, I mean, you've got earnings growth. As long as you have 12-month forward earnings growth that's positive, you're in relatively good shape.

Jonathan Ferro (1:15)

That's sufficient.

Barbara Reinhard (1:16)

That's exactly that is sufficient. The rate of change, of course, starts to matter. And if the rate of change starts to decelerate at a pretty significant pace, then you've got a much bigger problem on your hands. But you've got solid earnings growth, you've got solid labor market growth, you've got all the things that are kind of generally good for equity markets. However, there is the thesis of you're at a very dangerous part of the year. September and October are generally weak seasonal parts of the equity market. You've got the midterm elections, you've got the Fed. So there's certainly reasons over the near term to be a little bit concerned. But I would say the broader overall picture for us over the next six to 12 months is positive.

Lisa Abramowicz (1:57)

Does it give you more confidence that this US equity market has seemed shockproof? Or does it give you pause that maybe people have gotten overly complacent and levered up in places that haven't been tested?

Barbara Reinhard (2:08)

Lisa, we always worry about complacency. But our short term sentiment indicators have had some of the air taken out of them, which is relatively good news. And if you take a look at the global markets, they're actually behaving really well as well. So you take a look at kind of the technical indicators on 85% of the broader global equity markets are in relatively good shape. That's good news.

Lisa Abramowicz (2:30)

How much is this ultimately completely predicated on the idea that AI companies can keep raising capital?

Barbara Reinhard (2:35)

There's always that thesis that's underneath it, right? If the AI companies cannot raise capital, if the capital market suddenly closed to them, you're in a much different dynamic. That doesn't seem to be the case at this point, right? You have two big IPOs still coming to the market. We do worry about equity supply and equity demand. Equity demand is very strong, but it's also being met with very big supply. We had a similar dynamic in 2014 and 2015 Then you came into the China currency deval in 2016, and you had an equity bear market associated with it.

You are predicated on somewhat of a very fine definition between those two. If equity supply starts to swamp demand, that's a bigger issue, but we don't see that dynamic at this time.

Annmarie Hordern (3:17)

Do you think the political pushback, though, on AI is actually going to start hurting the trade at some point?

Barbara Reinhard (3:21)

Boy, you cannot see anywhere where you see data centers are having a very big protest from the people that live in those communities, and it's certainly understandable as well. That will be an issue that I think has to probably be worked out, and I think you need to have somewhat of a reset, honestly, from technology, having a little bit more of a positive view from the consumers that use it and saying, I don't want AI in my backyard.

Annmarie Hordern (3:47)

You mean how executives are speaking to the electorate?

Barbara Reinhard (3:49)

I think how executives, and I think also really kind of the underlying groundswell also from the communities that have data centers put in them as well.

Jonathan Ferro (3:58)