Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 25th, 2026

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

Jonathan Ferro (0:11)

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Annmarie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 AM Eastern.

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin this hour with stocks creeping higher as crude and bond pressure eases on hopes for a Hormuz deal. Peter Tchir of Academy writing, markets seem to react positively to any story, rumor or hope that is positive. That relationship might need to change. Pete joins us now for more. Pete, good morning.

Peter Tchir (0:51)

Good morning.

Jonathan Ferro (0:52)

Just elaborate on that if you can. What do you mean by that?

Peter Tchir (0:54)

I think as Lisa just said, the market is now finally starting to realize we shouldn't get overly excited about these talks, right? It's for a while felt like anytime we had talks, we sold off on oil. Anytime there was actually physical damage done to oil pipelines, we kind of shugged it off. And I think we're starting to shift. It's almost a show me sort of stage where, yeah, we need to see real progress on this and real shipments to really get comfortable. And some of that's going on, but not enough.

Jonathan Ferro (1:19)

Where do you want to see more of an adjustment in bonds and equities? Where do you expect to see it?

Peter Tchir (1:23)

You know, I would think in oil prices. I think that could go a bit higher. I think bonds, if anything, maybe got ahead of themselves a little bit. You know, I was very surprised how aggressively bonds reacted to the S&P data. It tends not to respond that much. And that looked like maybe it was a washout of a lot of people who were betting on Besson. You know, a lot of hedge funds were telling me, well, you don't want to bet against Besson. Well, I think we found it was safe to bet against Besson. So I think bonds have already priced in a lot. I think it's really an oil and probably equities a little bit.

Lisa Abramowicz (1:49)

Does it make sense to you that bond yields and oil prices are trading so much in lockstep?

Peter Tchir (1:55)

Not really, though, again, I think this all comes back to my overall view that liquidity is very narrow and thin in a lot of these markets, and it's very algo driven. So whatever the algos are trading, it works, right? We wake up every morning and you can look at the price of oil in guest treasuries, the algos are all doing that. So until something breaks and termines that, we're going to get those correlations because it's very electronic, it's very thin trading, which again is why we move so much on Tuesday when yields grew out.

Lisa Abramowicz (2:20)

I want to elaborate on the idea of the faith in Scott Besson and the Besson put that had been baked into the market that maybe now is getting unwound. Yesterday, there was a second round of buybacks of those 20 to 30 year treasuries and Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, had said previously that he was willing to buy back up to $6 billion worth. Yesterday, as yields reached the highest levels going back to 2007, he bought $4 billion worth, less than that.

What does that tell you about when he plans to go in hard and how big of a put this actually is?

Peter Tchir (2:50)

So one, this is nothing close to when we had the droggy whatever takes moment, right? He said to buy up to $6 billion, but they're only looking to buy the illiquid bonds and they're not looking to pay through the market, right? If you're really trying to drive bond yields lower, you buy through the market, especially if you're at the highest yields ever. So this is still kind of tweaking at the nuances, like, oh, this bond's illiquid, we can take it out of your portfolio so maybe we can buy something liquid. This is not all in trying to get the yields down. Otherwise, we would have bought all $6 billion or more and said this is dirt cheap.

Annmarie Hordern (3:17)

Well, as we've been talking about in this program, for Besson, it's that the president needs to solve a foreign policy issue. What are your generals telling you about potentially these deals that could be on the table for a ceasefire? We've been here before and talks have broken down.