Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 9th, 2026

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio, News.

Jonathan Ferro (0:11)

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern.

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SPEAKER_3 (0:36)

We begin this hour with stocks bouncing back as fresh details emerged about OpenAI's revenue estimates. George Goncalves of MUFG joins us now for more. George, what did you make yesterday of the incredible swings that we saw in the tech sector?

George Goncalves (0:47)

I think your points are well taken that we're so levered to like this the concept, you know, and the idea that, you know, that this profitability swings can drive other markets is impressive, right? I mean, kind of reminds you like this kind of upside down pyramid. We're kind of all balancing on the pin of AI or SI.

SPEAKER_3 (1:08)

Well, we'll stick with AI for this morning, although I'm sure that Mark Zuckerberg has already shifted to SI. A question though about how much this undermines the faith that AI can keep trucking and keep kind of supporting the overall market because that has been the ballast for so much of the strength that we've seen so far this year. Do you think that that's called into question given the fact that private companies have such a huge influence over this entire sector?

George Goncalves (1:32)

Look, I think the bottom line is it's clearly a growth driver. We see it in the GDP data, the sort of the capex leading to fixed investment.

That's clearly happening. So there's a macro kind of factor that I think will be with us for a long time. The question is the assumptions, the valuations and the profitability. And that's that I think is going to go unresolved until we actually know the value of these companies, their ability to make money.

SPEAKER_3 (1:55)

Do you think that there is a tell in the fact that the bond market rallied in tandem with the sell-off in tech stocks yesterday? Is this a sign that US government bonds are once again a haven, if there is some sort of scare to the narrative of growth that we've seen?

George Goncalves (2:10)

Yeah, that's a great point. And that's the one thing that's been really missing throughout this whole period. We've had this idea that tech is long duration, bonds are long duration, bonds trading as MUF stocks, I'm not sure yet.

But in tandem with all this, you've had the European bond markets under pressure. And so you kind of had this kind of birds of a feather flock together. And the US Treasury market has been trading poorly with all these other sovereigns. Do we ever get this moment where we get the flight equality status back? Like when does the Treasury becomes like a safe haven? I mean, I'm not sure if yesterday was the start of it. It's good to see, to your point, it was a very tumultuous week, tumultuous last six weeks.

It's good to see stability of the bond market. But I don't know if we're there yet to say that the flight equality trades back on.

Lisa Abramowicz (2:53)

How much was that just because of what happened with oil prices yesterday?

George Goncalves (2:57)

Look, I think we've been weighted with bated breath the whole week because the 10-year auction, the 30-year auction, which by the way, we do every single month. Just so you know, it's not like this. But the fact that it was such a big focus for broader markets, not just bonds, and the auctions were not only surprisingly strong, they were one of the strongest auctions on record.

So you see that there's value at these higher rates. And then yes, oil. I mean, the treasuries have been trading like a proxy to oil and vice versa. So as long as oil is doing its thing and at least stabilizes, then rates should stabilize too.

Lisa Abramowicz (3:26)

You mentioned that this is global in nature. But isn't it very different why Europe is under pressure versus why the United States is? Yeah.

George Goncalves (3:32)

So I mean, the common thread still comes back to the idea of like fiscal sustainability. And when you start to really dig into it, US has much more capacity than Europe, given the way that Europe is structured, in the sense that these countries don't have their own ability to print their own currency. They have an ECB that can backstop. But the Fed and Treasury is much different, right?