Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 16th, 2026

**SPEAKER_2** (0:02)
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

**Jonathan Ferro** (0:11)
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowitz and Annmarie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
Under surveillance this morning, escalation with Iran.

**Lisa Abramowitz** (0:40)
They want to settle so badly.

**Scott Kirby** (0:41)
They don't like what we're doing and they do want to settle. We'll find out whether or not we settle with them or we just finish it off. The country is booming and we'll have Iran defeated soon.

**Lisa Abramowitz** (0:50)
A lot of people thought oil would go up to $350 a barrel.

**Brian Moynihan** (0:53)
It went up a little bit because I had to take tough action. When that settles down, I think you're going to have $55 oil.

**Jonathan Ferro** (1:00)
So here's the latest this morning. The US striking Iran for a fifth consecutive day and hitting a sanctioned oil tanker sailing towards Cark Island as Tehran shows no signs of backing down. The possibility, the potential, that this could spread from limited action to a bigger, to use the president's word, excursion. That this could be a return to revisiting the kind of things that we were talking about in March, April time, which is seizing Cark Island.
What kind of military capabilities, resources do we need to achieve that? Because at this point, still seems unclear to me that we have the ability, certainly have the willingness, to maintain an open passage through the Strait of Formos. Given the asymmetric nature of this, the fact that Iran can make that very difficult for both shippers and the US alike with very cheap drones. Have we done enough sufficiently to establish, provide any evidence whatsoever, That's achievable.

**Annmarie Hordern** (1:51)
Well, I think for it to be more achievable, you would need more troops in the region, amphibious assault ships. And also, if you're thinking about trying to take control of an island, you would need ground troops. Absolutely. So I guess at this moment, that is what the president is weighing. He has given Iran a very long leash to try to come to the negotiating table. And at some point, the president might want to escalate because he's left with no other option.

**Jonathan Ferro** (2:15)
Here's a tape from Norman Roule of CSIS. He says, this is no longer a ceasefire suffering violations. It is a limited enforcement war with no apparent diplomatic exit. Norm joins us now from Norm for more. Norm, always appreciate your time, sir. So please elaborate and tell us what kind of phase you think we're in right now and what is the potential for this to become something bigger, something less limited?

**Norman Roule** (2:37)
Good morning. So we're looking at the Iranians using attacks as part of their negotiating strategy. These attacks are not saturation strikes. They're limited, but they're sufficient to demonstrate that Iran has the capability to close or to restrict traffic in the Gulf, the Strait and in the Arabian Sea. At the same time, the United States is undertaking a series of expanding and widespread attacks that are both degrading Iran's capability to attack shipping and to demonstrate to the Iranians that there is a material price to be paid for their lack of diplomatic engagement. Now, the diplomatic channel remains narrow, but it is open. And through the release of the American citizen, that is evidence of that. But as a ceasefire, this construct no longer is working. So what the United States is hoping, apparently, is that its actions will provoke a debate in Iran amongst its leadership. Basically, do they want to take this a lot farther? I think the answer is going to be yes in the near term, but events will dictate the course of this dynamic.

**Annmarie Hordern** (3:43)
Norm, can you provide some more context on the debate happening right now within the elites of Iran? Because some individuals are calling the likes of Mohammed Ghalibov a traitor for even having these negotiations with the United States.

**Norman Roule** (3:55)
Well, you want to be careful about anyone outside of that dynamic, especially 6,000 miles away, talking with great clarity. But it is clear that we have, especially in the wake of the funeral of the previous Supreme Leader, a space where individuals in this political world are each trying to outdo each other for a tough position on the United States and the region. Now, that is likely going to remain constant for some time.