Bloomberg Presents "What Goes Up"

Joe Weisenthal (0:00)

Hello, Odd Lots listeners, it's Joe Weisenthal. I wanted to share with you a new podcast from Bloomberg called What Goes Up. Each week, hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan speak with expert guests about the main themes influencing global markets. They explore everything from stocks to bonds to currencies and commodities. If you're curious about the latest buzz on Wall Street, this show is for you.

We're going to play you the latest episode of What Goes Up. And if you like what you hear and want to hear more, this show is out now and you can subscribe to it on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thanks and enjoy.

Sarah Ponczek (0:47)

Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly Markets Podcast. I'm Sarah Ponczek, a markets reporter on the Cross Asset Team.

Mike Regan (0:54)

And I am Mike Regan, a senior editor on the Markets Team.

Sarah Ponczek (0:57)

This week on the show, from Long Shot to Base Case. Wall Street is growing increasingly pessimistic that a trade deal might not be reached over the summer months.

And even as the Fed preaches patience, bond yields continue to fall, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching the lowest level since 2017

Mike Regan (1:15)

And of course, Sarah, we will finish the show with the ever-popular, the craziest thing I ever saw in markets this week, at least this week.

I hope you have a good one. Do you have a good crazy thing?

Sarah Ponczek (1:26)

I will have a good one by the end of the podcast.

Mike Regan (1:28)

All right, I've got a good one. No pressure on our guests. You always have a good one. But mine's pretty good. I'm just throwing it out there.

Emily Barrett (1:33)

Oh, that's it, I'm not trying.

Mike Regan (1:36)

Well, that's one of our guests there. Emily Barrett, you better have something good.

Emily is our correspondent, straight fresh from the trade wars, covering the bonds and FX markets.

Emily Barrett (1:45)

That's exactly how it feels.

Mike Regan (1:48)

And also joining us on the show, Gina Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist here at Bloomberg. Gina spent many years as a strategist at Wells Fargo, Wachovia Corp before that. But Sarah, I was looking at Gina's bio, something I did not know about her.

She's a gator.

Sarah Ponczek (2:04)

Really?

Gina Martin Adams (2:05)

Yes.

Sarah Ponczek (2:06)

You know that I am from South Florida as well. I'm a gator by birth.

Mike Regan (2:09)

I know, that's two Florida women on the show. I don't know. Florida women don't make the news quite as entertainingly as Florida men.

Yeah, but maybe we can change that this week.

Gina Martin Adams (2:19)

Don't underestimate us.

Sarah Ponczek (2:22)

But this week, we've been talking about US-China trade for a while now, but it seems like we got a bit of a step up. We think about what's changed for one being the Huawei blacklist. We've also heard talks that other surveillance companies out of China could be blacklisted as well. And we even have a fight song out of China. And for Gators, I went to school at Michigan. You know a good fight song can really rile people up.

Gina, from your perspective, is this becoming something that traders, investors can really no longer ignore?

Gina Martin Adams (2:54)

Yeah, I don't necessarily think they have ignored it, but it did take a new step this week and it took a step into a tech war as opposed to just a trade war.

I think when you look back over the course of the last year, that's been the most dangerous aspect of the US-China relationship shift.

It's not the tariffs. The tariffs are a teeny-tiny portion of GDP growth. They're a teeny-tiny portion of earnings growth. You know, you've run through the quantification of tariffs and you find out real quick how small they are, which is why stocks could sort of bounce around in the 1% to 3% decline range up until this week. And we did see an elevated level of volatility this week. We've seen a lot more angst evident in broad market classes with the rise in gold as a good example. This week, small caps really getting creamed this week. So much bigger risk off sentiment this week than last week. And I think the reason for that is this week, it became about tech, not about trade.

Mike Regan (3:50)

Jeanne, I'm curious in your career, have you ever thought about politics as much as we have to these days? It seems like a very uncomfortable thing for a numbers oriented fundamental technical analyst to worry about.