Bitcoin’s Next BIG Move Could Be Decided In The Next 48 Hours

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Scott Melker (0:27)

Bitcoin's next big move could be decided in the next 48 hours. Of course, that refers to the Clarity Act, but I'm just hoping that humanity survives another 48 hours with the rapid advancement in AI. We're going to talk about that today. We've got, I think, a first for Macro Monday. We, of course, have Mike and Dave, but we have a panel of five because we have Jim Bianco and Jordy Visser both joining. Can't wait to get into this one today. Let's go.

Good morning, everybody, and happy Monday. Since we've got five of us, we're going to dive right into it. We've got Jordy, Jim, Mike, and Dave. I didn't even know how the layout would look, to be honest. It's cool. Mike, you did not have a morning meeting today because you're on a spaceship, dressed up nicely. But you went on TV to talk about diesel, and diesel is a topic that we had pinned for today anyway. So tell us what you said.

Mike (1:35)

Well, we did have a meeting, but I missed it because of that. But I pointed out that now the fact is the world, the US is the world's largest exporter of diesel, around, approaching 2 million barrels a day, obviously, because of what's happening.

There's an election in a few months. And right now, we're in the absolute worst case for the party in power. Stock's going down, and energy price is surging. What are they gonna do about it? Now, we saw Mr. Trump's desperation with that $5,000 pledge at that convention last week. So I wouldn't underestimate they might try some kind of export ban. I don't know, or maybe do something, but they're getting very desperate. And that was the main key thing I focused on. The key thing I wanna point out for the history of this is, we're seeing this fact of...

I saw people, someone calls California, the People's Republic of California, they've been cutting out their refineries, and their diesel prices bumped up to $9.99. The only reason is because the screens can't go to $10, they can't go to four digits. That reminds me in 1979, Jim, you might remember this, I was pumping gas in the South Side of Chicago, and the first time the price of gasoline went above a gallon, we had to price it in half a gallon. And I ran, it was in the headline then and now. So it's a little bit of a circle around. But the main key thing I keep pointing out is, this is usually its own worst enemy. I compared diesel at six to the first time the price of unleaded gas pumped above four in 2008 And that's the number one thing that's missing so far this year, is the stock market going up, it hasn't gone down. It's volatility season, and we have things like S&P 500 running at multi-decade lows in terms of annual volatility versus gold, silver, and crude oil. Back to you.

Scott Melker (3:11)

Very hard for me to start a show without knowing what Ira Jersey and Anna Wong have to say, Mike, really.

Mike (3:16)

Me too. They're looking for Hike. I'm sure Jim will expand.

Scott Melker (3:21)

There we go. Okay. So Jim, I want to just talk about diesel because Mike obviously mentioned Iran, but that's not what you mentioned.

You mentioned, as you said, it's the war, but the other war. Russia, Ukraine, the fact that we have another war speaks volumes about the state of the world. But maybe give us your framing here.

Jim Bianco (3:39)

Yeah, the problem with...

Let me back up, and I'm going to channel my inner Jeff Curry here and say that nobody uses crude oil. We use distillates. We use the products of crude oil. The only consumer of crude oil is a refinery. And right now, we have a problem with the shortage in refined products. It starts in Russia.

Ukraine has been trying to bring the war to Russia. Russia has 39 refineries. They have now attacked 34 of those refineries, two more over the weekend. 60% of their refining capacity is offline. If you see a Russian petrol station right now, it looks like the gas stations in the US in the 1970s with big long gas lines. Russia has stopped exporting diesel to Europe. And the price of gas oil, the base for diesel, is up 120% in the last six months.