Bitcoin Waited Years For Today. It's Already Going Wrong

Scott Melker (0:01)

Crypto Market has waited with bated breath for this very big day. It is the day that we finally get a cloture vote on Clarity. And if you look at prediction markets, it's already going terribly wrong. The world is ending and doesn't really matter because AI is coming for us within the next three months anyways. We're going to talk about the Clarity Act and everything else happening in Crypto Markets today with Tillman, Andrew, Andrew, Andrew, Andrew, Andrew and Ryan from Bitwise. Let's go.

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Middle Earth. I hope you're all having a wonderful day. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Ryan Tillman and Andrew.

That's the name of the show. That's the name of the show.

Andrew (0:58)

That's the name I use when I'm grabbing people's username and passwords to log in to their X. So, that's good stuff. Well done. This could be my new DJ name.

But it's not Andro with an O, it's R-E-A-U-X. Andro. Fancy. That's good.

Scott Melker (1:20)

It's the old tradition. Here is an LSU fan named Andro. Well, anyways, good morning, gentlemen. It's a pleasure to be here. Happy Clarity Closure Day to you.

Happy 10-year-over-5% day to you, to all who celebrate. So, first of all, I just have to address something that blew my mind yesterday. This is, I made a joke in the morning. I wonder if they're going to go full weekend at Bernie's with Mitch McConnell for the Clarity vote tomorrow.

Andrew (1:44)

Of course.

Scott Melker (1:44)

And these crazy bastards did it.

Andrew (1:47)

Yeah.

Scott Melker (1:48)

They brought him out. They rolled him out. I don't know if you guys saw the video actually of him. Well, here he is.

I don't know if you guys saw the video of him coming out, but it was really inspiring. It's really good.

Tillman Holloway (1:59)

Yeah. There he is.

Andrew (2:05)

I mean, Bernie, weekend at Bernie's looks better than he does. Looks better than he does.

Scott Melker (2:10)

I'll be fair to the act that they rolled out Mitch McConnell unrecovered for the long shots to bring him out.

Tillman Holloway (2:16)

Listen, big players make big plays in big games. You bring in your aides too soon.

Scott Melker (2:22)

Game time. Ryan sitting here in disbelief of all that is happening. I'm sorry.

Ryan (2:29)

Makes you proud to be proud to be an American to see the political system working so smoothly and for so long.

Scott Melker (2:35)

Like he's been gone a long time. I mean, I can't believe he's back for this. I was totally kidding.

Andrew (2:40)

And it's just a cloture vote. It's not even the real vote.

Scott Melker (2:44)

Don't tell people that, Andrew. Everybody thinks they're going to find out today whether the Clarity Act is going to become law, and it's not the case.

Andrew (2:52)

The cloture vote will pass. Everybody will get excited, and then the actual Clarity Act won't pass. That's literally what's going to happen.

Scott Melker (3:00)

Well, I mean, actually, so rationally, we were talking about this before, it actually would make sense for the Democrats who might still be intending to vote against the Clarity Act to vote for cloture today, just so the conversation can continue.

Listen, we're voting for this today, but there's still a whole lot of concessions that we need. And the markets could have priced it today if it passes as if it's becoming law. I mean, Ryan, is that how you view this? Because that's how I'm seeing it.

Ryan (3:26)

Yeah, I think that's exactly what's going to happen. And I agree, I think most people don't realize that today is not the actual vote. There's still a lot of ground to cover if it passes the cloture today. But I do think that we'll get a surprise to the upside. I think probably markets pricing in around 20 percent odds that it gets signed into law. This year, I think that's probably too high, but I think we'll get the cloture to pass today.

Scott Melker (3:47)

Yeah, I have it. I actually have the CalChi here. So yeah, we're before, well, that's 20-27. Okay, these are the long odds because I'm dumb.

One second. Let me do the thing with the stuff. Yeah, there you go. Seven percent before October 1st. Nine percent before November 1st. 16 percent before December 1st. So these are the actual odds of it passing, not of cloture vote. I actually haven't seen if there's a market on cloture, or if people just only wouldn't even understand how to bet that one.

Andrew (4:18)

Oh, I'm sure that there's a market on cloture somewhere, buddy.