Bitcoin To $113K? Citi Just Raised Its Target By 38% | Matthew Sigel

Scott Melker (0:00)

Citi has raised its Bitcoin target by 38% to $113,000, largely on the back of historic ETF inflows and changing macro tailwinds, which is an interesting take considering many would view the macro situation as headwinds. Right now, I'm gonna dig into all of that and much more with Matt Sigel from VanEck. Let's go.

Good morning, everybody, and happy October to those who celebrate. For those who deeply believe in the four-year cycle, Bitcoin should go up 40% today. Because if you remember October's of the past in the four-year cycle, this is when things got massively ramped up. But I have a feeling that maybe we preempted that move over the past couple of months. We go ahead and bring on Matthew right now. Good morning, sir. How are you?

Matthew Sigel (1:04)

Scott, how are you? Scott, how are you?

Scott Melker (1:07)

I see that you also wore the Crypto Guy uniform today, which is the black shirt, although yours has sleeves. So, you know, we're not exactly the same. Okay, so let's just start from the beginning here with this first story. Citigroup raises 12-month Bitcoin target to 113,000 as ETF inflows resume. They also raise 12-month target for Ether from From From. They wrote From there twice. From From, 2,240 to 3,028.

So clearly, the broader idea here is that we've entered a bull market or that we're seeing some shift after that large, you know, 24% candle a couple months ago and entering a new bull market. You and I have talked about this before, by the way, that we were kind of not four-year cycle believers, but it's certainly starting to feel like the four-year cycle is back.

Matthew Sigel (1:58)

Yeah. What is that? A price target for ounce? I mean, you know, I don't think 113 is too much of a stretch over any investors' time period, which should be a year or so. So we had mixed views on four-year cycle.

Yon actually called it perfectly and called the bottom as well.

And so we looked for periods of max fear and added, and so we did end up adding some in the 60s. But I'd say across the firm, once the gold correlation spiked, right? BTC gold correlation. So right after the Besson move, that's when there were a lot of folks who were interested in that breakout, and that correlation has held. So we're feeling a lot better in the four-year cycle. It definitely helps as well.

Scott Melker (2:54)

Yeah, what I find interesting, I'm trying to bring up the chart right now. I looked at this the other day, but there's obviously the Bitcoin chart, and that correlation obviously has spiked since that time. But you take a look at the Bitcoin chart here on the weekly, and it's breaking above the 50 MA, making a new higher high right there, obviously. So the bear market structure is dead. And then you actually take a look at gold on the weekly, and it's breaking down below the 50 MA and making a lower high. So even though that correlation has been stronger, Bitcoin to me relatively looks like it's entering a new bull market where there could be fear that gold is heading down or going to have a long period of consolidation, maybe like Bitcoin did for months.

Matthew Sigel (3:34)

Yeah, there'll be oscillations. The daily correlations are super high, but then I think you can take a lot of comfort from the BTC gold ratio, which is still like 19, right? And maybe bottomed around 15, all-time high, closer to 40 or 50 So that's how you can end up with a Bitcoin thesis of doubling in a year, even if gold treads water. But let's see, you mentioned October. I was just looking at the seasonality charts. It's definitely the best month of the year, going back here to 2011, average return.

Wait a minute.

Scott Melker (4:18)

Sorry.

Matthew Sigel (4:19)

August is the best year.

August is the best year, typically. No, October up 28 percent. Excuse me. October up 28 percent. November, 34 percent. So yeah, it's a seasonally good period. I know there's a lot of election fears, and definitely the higher rates are probably going to break something, but we're starting off of a much more constructive price than at 60

Scott Melker (4:45)

If you have it pulled up, can I ask you, what about October's in 2026, 2022, 2018, and 2014, this part of the theoretical four-year cycle? Because my memory has it, like in 2022, like we were, September sucked, and then all of a sudden we popped really big right when the clock hit, midnight on October 1st, but maybe my memory serves me wrong.