Bitcoin Reclaims Its Bear-Market Ceiling. Is the Rally Real?

Ram Ahluwalia (0:00)

They'll call it benefits, starting with Gen X, for all of us and younger. So that's gonna happen, that's the move. They're gonna say, qualify for these benefits eight to 10 years later in life.

Chris Perkins (0:12)

But it's the boomers that are gonna decide that, right? For us.

Austin Campbell (0:14)

Yes, yes. Well, a lot of them, hold on, 10 years forward, the boomers will be way more dead than they currently are. I think people need to be careful about the electoral predictions of boomer power. They're hanging on, man.

Chris Perkins (0:27)

They're hanging on.

Austin Campbell (0:28)

Hey, everyone. Welcome to Bits and Bips, where we explore how crypto and macro collide one basis point at a time.

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SPEAKER_4 (0:57)

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Austin Campbell (1:44)

All right, so markets today.

Bitcoin has been flying up about 7% on the day. I see it above 87k as I'm looking at the screen right now. ETH has been catching up along with it, cleared 2,790. Brent is around 100 WTI around 95 and change came back in a little. Tenure stubbornly high, still at 4.95%. Gold at 4,340 an ounce. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are both up at the close, 1.5 and 2.3%.

So with that backdrop, as always, I'm your host, Austin Campbell, High Scholar of Zero Knowledge Group. I'm here with my usual two co-hosts, Ram Ahluwalia, Maester of Wealth, Leader of Lumida, and Chris Perkins, the golden hand of Franklin Crypto. So guys, let's start with the markets here and specifically, let's start with Bitcoin because this is interesting in the context of the world. First weekly candle to close above its 50-week moving average for 45-ish weeks. That line has marked the end of past bear markets and obviously it continues to run. There's a debate going as to whether this is short covering or real buyers out there, but I'm gonna remind everybody, every trade has two sides. You always have a buyer and a seller. So, in early September, we couldn't get this far and now we close the weekly average at 81,160. Monday has added another leg. Galaxy Digital and Alex Thorn are noting the 50-week is the bear market ceiling and you have to reclaim that. Quote, in four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitely in. Benjamin Cowan said, a rally to a higher high and weekly closes above the 50-week SMA would materially weaken the bear case. And Jurian Timmer at Fidelity said, I'm sensing that a new four-year bull cycle is underway.

There is the case that it was all shorts. IT Tech said, Coinbase premium negative 166 of 168 hours. It was short covering that drove the bounce. Real US buyers never showed up. Listed companies have only added 5,900 BTC against 89,000 in July 2025 and spot ETFs for a whole week.

Counterpoint, the case that the reclaim holds. GlassNode said, corporate treasury cost basis around 80K. ETF cost basis around 85K. It's all spot.

And a desk note that was circulating on the street is a pure squeeze, usually gives back 50 to 70% in the next session of the game. This one did not. So, Ram, you're a markets guy. You've been watching all kinds of markets for a very long time. We've just seen Bitcoin reemerge from the dead, like sort of move up from the rubble levels that we were seeing for a while. What are you making of the price action? Do you think it's just shorts? Is there more?