Bitcoin Just Flashed A Major Bottom Signal Last Seen In 2022

**Scott Melker** (0:01)
Bitcoin just flashed a major bottom signal last seen in 2022 I've seen more people declaring Bitcoin dead in my timeline today than arguably ever before. We're gonna talk about that, and arguably more positive things, with today's guest, Ryan, from Bitwise, let's go.
Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday, and welcome to my fourth Beach Shy The State Of The Week. I think, actually, we were at a lake yesterday. As you can see, we have the plants going in opposite directions because we have very inconsistent wind on this island. It's not real, it's AI. I'm gonna go ahead and bring on Ryan right now. Good morning, sir.

**Ryan** (0:59)
Good morning, good morning. Love the setting.

**Scott Melker** (1:04)
Thank you. So the worst things get, like more optimistic and giggly I become. I don't know. I don't know if I have a personality disorder or something, but the more people start screaming at me, the more entertained I get, and the more it kind of creates a flywheel of me being more positive. But I invited you here because I know that you're a fellow member of STRC Bag Holders Anonymous.

**Ryan** (1:26)
That's right. That's right.

**Scott Melker** (1:28)
I stand up. I'm Scott Melker. I am an STRC bag holder since last year.

**Ryan** (1:33)
And my first step is emitting it.

**Scott Melker** (1:34)
Okay. So let's start with Sailor. Obviously, STRC has lost its quote unquote peg, which is the incorrect terminology because it's not a stable coin. So people need to figure that out. But yes, it's obviously trading well below par. And there's a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt around Sailor's future and what will happen with strategy. So listen, you're looking at this stuff all day. What do you think?

**Ryan** (1:57)
Yeah, look, I think you're right. People look at it like a yield-bearing stable coin or a money market fund, at least retail investors do. And I actually do think there's a lot of retail investors who have bought into stretch because there's so many retail investors that are huge strategy, or Michael Sailor Bowls and fans. And that's just not what it is.
So do we like to see it around 80 as fellow bag holders? Not necessarily, but there was always more risk in that than a yield-bearing stable coin or a money market fund. And it depends on your holding period. I think that it will recover near 100 once Bitcoin price rallies. And I'm not really worried about the strategy is gonna collapse and send the market to zero at all. That's not, that's not the camp I'm in.

**Scott Melker** (2:43)
I mean, I can't understand how that math would even math.

**Ryan** (2:47)
It wouldn't math. And actually, we get a lot of questions about this.

**Scott Melker** (2:50)
Not the STRC part, by the way. The STRC part could stay below par for a very long time, as far as I know. But either way, if you believe they'll still pay the dividend, you get paid on the dividend on par, not at whatever the price is trading at. So like, there is an interesting element there, which is the retirees who may have bought this in, and to be fair, like you'd be pretty pissed. But if you're a retiree who bought STRC for an 11.5% indefinite yield, the price of the asset on a given day actually doesn't matter at all, because you're getting paid the 11.5% dividend, as long as they don't cut that dividend. But the strategy dying camp was the math, not math-ing part I'm talking about, because this is not Luna. They're backed by 870,000 Bitcoin.

**Ryan** (3:31)
Yeah, exactly. STRECH could stay below 100 for 10 years, 20 years. They could hike the dividend. It could not change it. They could pause the dividend. They could cut the dividend. That's totally part of the risk that you took when you invested in STRECH. But nonetheless, I think you're exactly right. You continue to receive the dividend until they change that. It reduces your cost basis the way that it's distributed. And then you have strategy itself. They sold 32 Bitcoin and everyone is freaking out. The amount of questions that we get from clients and investors who are worried about this 32 Bitcoin sale is pretty surprising to me. They bought over a thousand the next week and people are so focused on the fact they sold 32 I think it's a good thing that they sold 32 I think we'll look back at this when Bitcoin recovers to 80, 90, 100 plus K and think it was silly that everyone was freaking out.

**Scott Melker** (4:24)
Yeah, I agree. I also like find it so interesting to sort of watch the emotions surrounding these things because you can tell that people are just like, they attach their entire personality at some point to like, this thing has to fail and... Yeah, massive flywheel of emotion, but like even forget strategy, Bitcoin yesterday did drop below 60 I think it went the lowest it's been since 2024, but like by like $12 or something, right? I mean, it swept those lows, but we're like, we're sitting the same range. Like we've been in the low 60s for all of June.